LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Utilities in the United States have relied on fossil fuels to generate a larger share of electricity than their counterparts in China since June, seriously undermining U.S. claims to be a leader in energy transition efforts.

U.S. utilities have relied on fossil fuels to generate an average of 62.4% of total electricity production for the past four months, according to data from energy think tank Ember.

The high U.S. fossil dependence came during the summer when domestic power demand is highest due to air conditioner use, while China's relatively lower fossil reliance has occurred during a protracted economic slowdown.

Nonetheless, the higher U.S. fossil reliance highlights how much more aggressive China has been in ramping up clean power output, which has left China closer to hitting a peak in fossil use for power than the United States.

Without quick cuts to fossil generation or rapid rises to clean power output, the U.S. runs the risk of falling behind other major economies in energy sector decarbonisation efforts, and losing credibility as a climate champion.

PATCHY PROGRESS

Global power providers are taking a two-pronged approach to advancing the energy transition: cutting the use of fossil fuels, and boosting supplies of clean power.

In the United States, clean power generation has been the priority over the past five years, with electricity output from clean energy sources rising by around 16% since 2019, according to Ember.

However, steadily rising total power demand has limited the scope for power firms to cut generation from fossil fuels.

Indeed, fossil fuel-fired generation over the first nine months of 2024 was down only 0.8% from the same months in 2019, to 1,967 terawatt hours (TWh).

That said, the configuration of U.S. fossil fuel use has altered since 2019, with coal-fired generation dropping by 34% from 750 TWh during January to September 2019 to 497 TWh during the same months this year.

Coal's share of the U.S. generation mix dropped accordingly, from around 25% in 2019 to 15% this year.

But with total power demand rising each year, power firms have needed to offset the drop in coal output with higher gas-fired production.

Gas-fired generation in January to September this year was 1,450 TWh, up 20% from the same months in 2019, while gas' share of generation climbed from 38% in 2019 to 43% this year.

Total U.S. electricity generation has grown by around 5.5% from 2019 to 2024, as electric vehicles, data centres and artificial intelligence applications lift overall energy consumption.

OUTPACED

China's mammoth manufacturing-led economy has faced a far steeper climb in total power demand in recent years, with electricity consumption rising by nearly 37% from 2019 to 2024, Ember data shows.

To keep pace with that demand growth, China's utilities have been forced to lift both fossil fuel and clean energy generation by more than any other major economy.

Fossil fuel-fired electricity output has jumped by around 23% from 2019 to 2024, to a record 4,618 TWh. Over 95% of that power has come from coal plants, which generated 4,394 TWh.

Clean-powered electricity generation - from renewables, nuclear plants, and hydro dams - has grown by much more, however, rising 67% to 2,834 TWh.

The fact that clean generation has risen three times faster than fossil generation has helped China's power firms to boost overall power supplies while reducing coal's share of the generation mix.

In 2019, coal accounted for a 66% share of total electricity production, according to Ember.

So far in 2024, coal's share has dropped below 60% for the first time, and looks set to keep declining as power firms add more renewables and other clean power sources to generation systems.

CAPACITY CATCH-UP

For U.S. power producers, the most effective means of reducing fossil fuel reliance is to build up more clean generation capacity throughout the country.

Between 2018 and 2023, U.S. clean generation capacity jumped by 40% to 438 Gigawatts (GW), Ember data shows.

U.S. firms also reduced fossil capacity by around 4% over that time, mainly through the closure of outdated coal plants.

However, China boosted clean generation by over 100% since 2018, and has the most aggressive clean energy development roadmap of any major economy.

China's clean energy capacity also already exceeds total fossil capacity by roughly 20%, and continues to grow. In contrast, U.S. clean generation capacity remains around 35% less than fossil capacity.

If the U.S. is to establish itself as a true leader on climate action and decarbonisation, a much more aggressive clean capacity pipeline must be developed that sharply tilts the country's generation mix away from fossil fuels.

Sumber: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-power-system-becomes-more-fossil-dependent-than-chinas-maguire-2024-10-25/