Japan has approved its targeted power mix portfolio for the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year, as well as its new greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction goal, it announced today.

The new power mix goal, the centrepiece of the country's Strategic Energy Plan (SEP), is in line with Japan's aim to reduce GHG emissions by 73pc by 2040-41 compared to 2013-14 levels. Tokyo plans to submit the 2040-41 emission target, as well as a 60pc emissions reduction goal for 2035-36, to the UN climate body the UNFCCC on 18 February as the country's nationally determined contribution (NDC).

The country has not made major changes to its draft proposal that it unveiled in December.

The new SEP sees renewable energy making up 40-50pc of the country's power generation in 2040-41, up from 22.9pc in 2023-24. The share of thermal power will fall to around 30-40pc from 68.6pc, while that of nuclear will increase to around 20pc from 8.5pc during the same period. The 2040-41 target is based on Japanese power demand of 1,100-1,200 TWh, which is higher by 12-22pc from 2023-24.

The government has planned the power portfolio so that it is not heavily dependent on one specific power source or fuel type, the country's minister for trade and industry (Meti) Yoji Muto said on 18 February, although the new plan suggests making maximum use of low-carbon power supply sources.

Public consultation over 27 December-26 January revealed that some think Japan should slow or even stop the decarbonisation process, given the US government's reversal of its climate policies, including its withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, said Meti. But global commitment to decarbonisation will remain unchanged, said Muto, adding that Japan will lose its industrial competitiveness if the country delays green transformation efforts.

But US president Donald Trump's "drill, baby, drill" policy has prompted the Japanese government to delete a segment from the draft SEP that had initially proposed bilateral co-operation through Tokyo's green transformation strategy and the US' Inflation Reduction Act.

Despite Tokyo's decarbonisation goals, the new SEP assumes that fossil fuels, including natural gas, oil and coal, will still account for over 50pc of primary energy demand in 2040-41 in all of its scenarios — although this is down from 93pc in 2013-14 and 83pc in 2022-23. The scenarios vary based on the degree of uptake of renewables, hydrogen and its derivatives, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, to fulfil the 73pc emission reduction goal by 2040-41.

Worst-case scenario

Tokyo also has also set out a potential worst-case scenario, assuming slower development of clean technologies, in which fossil fuels would still account for 67pc of primary energy supply in 2040-41. Under this scenario, which assumes Japan will only reduce its GHG emissions by around 61pc by 2040-41, natural gas is estimated to account for about 26pc, or 74mn t, of Japan's primary energy supply, which is higher than the 53mn-61mn t in the base scenarios that are formulated in accordance to the 73pc emissions reduction target.

Japan would need to address the potential 21mn t gap in gas demand, which will mostly be met by LNG imports, in 2040-41, depending on the development of clean technologies. The gap is equivalent to 32pc of the country's LNG imports of 65.9mn t in 2024.

When asked by Argus whether the government will continue to try securing LNG to ensure energy supply security when considering the worst-case scenario, a Meti official said Tokyo should continue pursuing its 73pc GHG reduction target, but it is necessary to consider the potential risks for each individual policy and the measures that need to be taken, instead of making decisions based on the worst-case scenario.

The new SEP has highlighted the role of LNG in the country's energy transition and the necessity to secure long-term supplies of the fuel. It is unclear what ratio gas-fired capacity will account for in Japan's 2040-41 power mix, as the SEP does not include a breakdown of thermal generation. But gas-fed output is expected to take up the majority share, given that gas has already outpaced coal in power generation and Tokyo has pledged to phase out inefficient coal-fired plants by 2030.

By Motoko Hasegawa and Yusuke Maekawa

As a summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Jakarta fast approached in September 2023, Indonesia’s state-run electricity provider, PLN, partially shut down one of its oldest and biggest coal-fired power plants in the hopes of cleaning up the capital’s filthy air.

Jakarta’s air quality — or lack of it — was among the worst in the world. The president at the time, Joko Widodo, even developed a cough attributed to the haze.

In response, the state monopoly took offline some of the boilers at the colossal Suralaya-Banten power station complex — an ultimately meaningless move as the remaining 15 other power stations that ring Jakarta continued to churn out smog.

Nevertheless, the incident may have marked the first and last time any of Indonesia’s 135 coal-fired power stations are closed before their time.

Days after the U.S. signaled it was leaving the Paris climate agreement, again, Indonesia’s special envoy for climate change and energy, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, said his country may follow suit.

Last week, Hashim, who is also the brother of the country’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, walked back the government’s November commitment to close most of the country’s coal-fired power plants over the next 15 years, calling it “economic suicide.”

While that deadline was probably unrealistic, the trend is clear, analysts say. Big multibillion-dollar initiatives to close the country’s coal-fired plants, including the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), are probably doomed.

“We need to firmly say ‘goodbye’ to JETP,” Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, director and founder of research outfit the Centre for Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), told Mongabay.

“The JETP is dead. It’s no longer a platform to support energy transition in Indonesia.”

A low-energy start

Still, the platform had never been in good shape.

Agreed at the G20 summit in Bali in 2022, the JETP’s goal was to rope rich countries that industrialized thanks to fossil fuels into helping big emerging economies of the Global South from doing the same thing.

Instead, the pact earmarked funds for recipient countries to close down their coal plants before the end of their operating lives.

The G7 rich democracies, including the U.S. and Japan, the EU, Denmark and Norway, agreed to contribute USD 20 billion to Indonesia to shutter its power stations in the coming decades.

Earlier this month, Germany’s Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development said it would co-lead the JETP along with Japan, taking the place of the U.S.

But Germans go to the polls in a federal election on Feb. 23 with the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which wants to leave the Paris Agreement, in second place, which may put the commitment in doubt.

For its part, Indonesia hopes to derive two-thirds of its electricity from renewable sources — roughly 220 gigawatts — by 2040, according to a JETP study published in November 2023.

South Africa and Vietnam have similar agreements with the G7 and the EU valued at total of USD 25 billion.

So far, of the USD 20 billion promised to Indonesia, only USD 500 million has materialized. No plant has even started the process of closing down under the JETP.

In early February, Bahlil Lahadalia, the minister of energy and mineral resources, reiterated government plans to retire the 660-megawatt Cirebon 1 plant by 2035, seven years earlier than planned, with help from the Asian Development Bank.

The ADB and the members of the consortium that owns the power plant, including Japan’s Marubeni, Indonesia’s Indika Energy and Korea Midland Power, signed a nonbinding agreement in December 2023 to shutter the plant and invest nearly USD 200 million in solar, wind and battery storage in its place.

Too much electricity, too little leadership

In any case, Indonesia needs to pare back its fleet of coal stations. The result of a building spree during the presidencies of Joko Widodo and his predecessor, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the glut costs PLN upward of 21 trillion rupiah (USD 1.3 billion) a year because its contracts with producers require it to pay for the power whether it uses it or not.

Officials worry, though, they risk being hauled up before the courts on corruption charges if shutting down a power plant means realizing some of those losses, CELIOS’s Bhima said.

Last June, Karen Agustiawan, the former head of state oil and gas company Pertamina, was sentenced to nine years in prison and fined 500 million rupiah (USD 31,000) after a court ruled she was responsible for racking up state losses of some 2.1 trillion rupiah (USD 130 million) owing in part to a long-term LNG supply agreement dating back to 2012 that locked in higher-than-market prices with a U.S. supplier.

“Directors of state-owned enterprises would need something concrete from the government, like an act of parliament, before they shut down a plant,” Bhima said.

Efforts to begin shuttering some of the country’s coal-fired power stations may also run against the interests of international investors and members of cabinet who own coal assets.

Boy Garibaldi, whose brother Erick is the minister of state-owned enterprises, controls Adaro, one of the world’s largest coal miners. The company is building a 2-GW coal-fired power plant in the so-called Green Industrial Park in North Kalimantan province.

Government records show President Prabowo’s own personal assets include a 40% stake in the company PT Nusantara Energindo Coal, which owns several coal-mining concessions in East Kalimantan.

Up in smoke

Japanese companies, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, are pitching technologies to PLN that they say will reduce the carbon emissions that coal-fired plants produce. Work on two new generators at Suralaya-Banten, which will mix ammonia with coal, are nearing completion.

Mixing ammonia, a toxic gas, results in a modest reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but poses serious health risks, environmentalists say. Burning ammonia dramatically increases the amount of fine dust a coal station emits.

The Suralaya-Banten complex contributes to 1,470 premature deaths and is responsible for sickness and lost productivity valued at USD 1 billion a year, according to a September 2023 report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

“As for Japan, it’s mainly about promoting and ‘selling’ green hydrogen and green ammonia — false solutions,” Leonard Simanjuntak, Greenpeace Indonesia country director, told Mongabay.

Some ‘light of hope’

Investment in renewable energy is making some progress.

Construction on a 120-MW solar installation on the Duriangkan reservoir on Batam Island is slated to start this year as part of a massive renewable energy project that will eventually reach half the current generating capacity of the Suralaya-Banten complex.

That project follows a similar 145-MW development by the UAE’s Masgar and PLN that went into operation in 2023 on the Cirata reservoir in West Java. An additional 500 MW of solar capacity there is in the works.

Still, the government has capped solar generating capacity at 1.5 GW by 2028 — roughly double what’s available now — owing to worries that on-again-off-again sunlight might overwhelm the grid.

While funding from rich donors and multilateral agencies to close coal plants may be harder to come by, some alternative sources of money are emerging.

Swapping coal power debt for securities aimed at shutting down power plants and developing infrastructure such as charging stations is a potential source of funds. The approach is a potential win-win-win solution, CELIOS’s Bhima said. PLN could reduce some of its nearly 400 trillion rupiah (USD 24.5 billion) debt pile while securing new funds for investment in renewable energy. Swaps could be structured to allow lenders to claim carbon credits.

PLN has some 95 trillion rupiah (USD 5.8 billion) in debt maturing this year that may be suitable to swap, according to a CELIOS report late last year, Bhima said.

“There is some light of hope in the transition to renewables.”

Bloomberg Technoz, Jakarta – Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) menyatakan efisiensi anggaran kementerian/lembaga (K/L) menjadi salah satu kendala implementasi mandatori biodiesel B40 tahun ini. Kondisi itu berdampak salah satunya pada anggaran pengawasan B40.

Direktur Jenderal Energi Baru Terbarukan dan Konservasi Energi (EBTKE) Kementerian ESDM Eniya Listiani Dewi menyebut anggaran kementeriannya tahun ini dipangkas 42% atau mencapai Rp1,66 triliun.

Untuk itu, pihaknya saat ini tengah bernegosiasi dengan Badan Pengelola Dana Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit (BPDPKS) agar bisa mendukung pendanaan pengawasan mandatori B40.

"Saat ini memang karena ada efisiensi anggaran, pengawasan kita sudah upayakan negosiasi untuk dilakukan pendanaan juga tambahan dari BPDPKS untuk bisa melakukan pengawasan bersama implementasi dari program B40," kata Eniya dalam rapat bersama Komisi XII DPR, dikutip Rabu (19/2/2025). 

Skema Baru

Program mandatori B40 kini berjalan dengan skema baru, yakni insentif biodiesel yang dialokasikan dari BPDPKS hanya mampu mendanai setengah dari alokasi B40 yang ditetapkan tahun ini, atau hanya dialirkan kepada B40 yang diproduksi untuk segmen pelayanan umum alias public service obligation (PSO).

Akibat mahalnya ongkos produksi B40, dari alokasi produksi sebanyak 15,6 juta kiloliter (kl), BPDPKS hanya wajib menyalurkan pendanaan produksi untuk 7,55 juta kl biodiesel PSO, sedangkan untuk yang non-PSO atau komersial dibanderol sesuai harga pasar.

Pendanaan BPDPKS berasal dari hasil pungutan ekspor (PE) minyak kelapa sawit atau crude palm oil (CPO), yang konon akan naik menjadi 10?ri 7,5% pada tahun ini. 

"Saat ini memang ada persaingan sedikit karena ongkos angkutnya berbeda-beda, dan pada saat ini ada penyaluran biodiesel untuk PSO. Kalau yang PSO dapat insentif, kalau yang non-PSO tidak. Jadi kadang-kadang ada sedikit perbedaan distribusi, dan ini kita lakukan pengawasan," ungkap Eniya.

Dengan demikian kata dia, pengawasan B40 perlu ditambah untuk memastikan kualitas dan spesifikasi B40 bisa tetap terjaga dari lokasi produksi menuju lokasi pencampuran biodiesel.

Kemampuan Produksi

Eniya juga menyebut kendala lainnya seperti keterbatasan kemampuan produksi. Pemerintah telah menghitung bahwa pabrik di 28 Badan Usaha Bahan Bakar Nabati (BU BBN) sudah hampir penuh, dengan capacity factor 80% untuk memenuhi B40.

“Jadi pabriknya hampir penuh, sekitar 80?rgerak untuk memenuhi B40.”

Tak hanya itu, keterlambatan moda transportasi pengangkut BBN juga menjadi kendala implementasi B40. Eniya mencontohkan keterlambatan kapal laut atau keterbatasan dermaga (jetty) dan lokasi penyimpanan yang harus bertambah 5?ri sebelumnya pada saat mandatori B35.

Dengan demikian, imbas dari segala kendala dan keterbatasan tersebut, Kementerian ESDM kemudian memberikan kelonggaran agar B40 baru terimplementasi secara penuh pada Maret 2025.

"Kita memang sedang menganalisis lagi karena ada keputusan pemerintah untuk kita membuat review program B40 ini sepanjang tiga bulan. Jadi nanti Maret kita akan melihat bagaimana progres dari B40 ini," imbuhnya.

Penerapan B40 sejatinya telah terlaksana mulai 1 Januari 2025, tetapi saat itu Kementerian ESDM menyatakan akan berlaku pada Februari 2025 karena ada masa transisi dari B35 menjadi B40. Artinya, dengan adanya sejumlah kendala tersebut B40 cenderung akan molor hingga Maret 2024.

Kementerian ESDM melaporkan bahwa realisasi B40 hingga 17 Februari 2025 mencapai 1,36 juta kl dengan perincian; PSO dengan alokasi 7,55 juta kl telah terealisasi 0,71 juta kl (24 BU BBN & 2 BU BBM) dan non-PSO dengan alokasi 8,05 juta kl telah terealisasi 0,65 juta kl (24 BU BBN & 28 BU BBM).

Adapun, realisasi manfaat ekonomi program mandatori biodiesel B35 pada 2024 diklaim telah menghemat devisa sebesar US$9,33 miliar atau Rp147,5 triliun, peningkatan nilai tambah atau CPO menjadi biodiesel sebesar Rp20,98 triliun, dan penyerapan tenaga kerja lebih dari 14 ribu orang (off-farm) dan 1,95 juta orang (on-farm).

(mfd/wdh)

JAKARTA, investor.id – Harga batu bara meredup pada Kamis (20/2/2025). Hal itu karena stok batu bara India melonjak.

Harga batu bara Newcastle untuk Februari 2025 stagnan di US$ 103,5 per ton. Sedangkan Maret 2025 anjlok US$ 1,2 menjadi US$ 106,2 per ton. Sementara itu, April 2025 terpangkas US$ 1,05 menjadi US$ 109,25 per ton.

Sementara itu, harga batu bara Rotterdam untuk Februari 2025 turun US$ 0,35 menjadi US$ 100,4. Sedangkan, Maret 2025 anjlok US$ 1,3 menjadi US$ 98,05. Sedangkan pada April 2025 terkoreksi US$ 1,15 menjadi US$ 97,85.

Dikutip dari media di India, stok batu bara di pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) nasional di India meningkat menjadi 74?ri level normal pada 19 Februari, naik dari 62% pada periode yang sama tahun lalu. Data dari Central Electricity Authority (CEA) menunjukkan stok batu bara di PLTU mencapai 53,09 juta ton, dibandingkan dengan kebutuhan normatif sebesar 71,26 juta ton.

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral mencatat produksi batu bara nasional selama April 2024 hingga Januari 2025 mencapai 830,66 juta ton, meningkat 5,9?ri 784,51 juta ton pada periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya.

Dari total 188 PLTU dengan kapasitas pembangkitan 213 gigawatt (GW), sebanyak 30 pembangkit dilaporkan memiliki stok kritis, di mana 17 diantaranya merupakan pembangkit berbasis batu bara domestik. Kondisi stok kritis terjadi ketika ketersediaan bahan bakar berada di bawah 25?ri level normatif. Tahun lalu, terdapat 28 pembangkit dalam kondisi serupa.

Peningkatan stok batu bara di PLTU tahun ini didorong oleh berbagai langkah pemerintah, termasuk optimalisasi logistik guna memastikan ketersediaan pasokan di tengah lonjakan permintaan listrik.

PLTU Batu Bara

PLTU berbasis batu bara India dengan kapasitas total 195 GW memiliki stok 76?ri level normatif, yaitu sebesar 50,9 juta ton, sedangkan kebutuhan normatifnya mencapai 66,5 juta ton. Sementara itu, 17 PLTU berbasis batu bara impor dengan kapasitas total 17,96 GW hanya memiliki stok sebesar 45?ri level yang dibutuhkan, atau sekitar 2,2 juta ton dari kebutuhan normatif 4,8 juta ton.

Pada 2024, permintaan listrik puncak mencapai 250 GW pada Mei, lebih rendah dari proyeksi pemerintah sebesar 260 GW. CEA kini memperkirakan permintaan puncak akan mencapai 270 GW pada tahun fiskal 2026 dengan tingkat pertumbuhan tahunan gabungan (CAGR) sebesar 7?lam lima tahun ke depan, naik dari 6% saat ini.

Untuk mengantisipasi lonjakan permintaan, perusahaan tambang batu bara milik negara, Coal India, menargetkan produksi sebesar 915 juta ton pada tahun fiskal 2026.

Berdasarkan estimasi Crisil, permintaan listrik nasional meningkat sekitar 4,2% secara tahunan sepanjang April 2024 hingga Januari 2025. Pada Januari, permintaan puncak listrik diperkirakan naik 14 GW menjadi 237 GW. “Secara keseluruhan, suhu di berbagai wilayah cenderung lebih hangat, namun pertumbuhan permintaan listrik tidak merata,” kata Crisil dalam laporannya.

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Harga batu bara dekati level US$100/ton bersamaan dengan penurunan permintaan dari China yang kemungkinan akan berlanjut dalam beberapa waktu ke depan.

Dilansir dari Refinitiv, harga batu bara pada perdagangan Kamis (20/2/2025) tercatat di US$106,2/ton atau turun 1,12% apabila dibandingkan penutupan perdagangan 19 Februari 2025 yang sebesar US$107,4/ton.

Depresiasi harga batu bara ini kembali menunjukkan bahwa kondisi global yang belum mampu membuat harga batu bara kembali ke level yang lebih tinggi dalam waktu dekat.

Penurunan permintaan batubara di China kemungkinan akan berlanjut selama beberapa bulan, membebani pasar global yang telah menyaksikan raksasa pertambangan Glencore Plc terpaksa mempertimbangkan pemangkasan produksi setelah harga turun mendekati level terendah dalam dekade ini.

Sebagai catatan, China merupakan produsen dan konsumen batubara terbesar di dunia dan telah berupaya keras menimbun pasokan yang cukup untuk mencegah pemadaman listrik yang melumpuhkan ekonomi seperti dalam beberapa tahun terakhir.

Namun, rekor produksi domestik dan impor yang tinggi bertepatan dengan perlambatan ekonomi, menciptakan surplus dan mendorong harga batubara pemanas lokal mendekati level terendah dalam empat tahun.

"Batubara termal bisa menguji level terendah baru dalam jangka pendek," kata Li Xuegang, analis di China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association, dalam sebuah pengarahan pada Rabu, dikutip dari Bloomberg.

Dia menambahkan bahwa penurunan harga kemungkinan akan mengurangi minat China terhadap impor, dengan permintaan yang diperkirakan baru pulih pada paruh kedua tahun ini jika pemerintah meningkatkan stimulus ekonomi.

Saat itu juga merupakan periode ketika permintaan batubara untuk pendinginan melalui penggunaan AC mencapai puncaknya.

Sementara itu, harga ekspor regional mengikuti tren penurunan yang sama, dengan kontrak berjangka batubara Newcastle Australia turun ke level terendah sejak 2021 minggu ini. Namun, sedikit kelegaan mungkin segera datang jika perusahaan seperti Glencore terpaksa memangkas pasokan.

Namun, kondisi di China tetap suram. Analis dari CCTD memperkirakan harga spot akan turun di bawah tingkat kontrak jangka panjang yang biasanya menjadi penopang pasar. Mereka juga mencatat bahwa lignit berkualitas rendah yang biasanya dicampur dengan batubara berkualitas lebih tinggi untuk meningkatkan nilai kalorinya akan mengalami penurunan harga terbesar.

Batubara dengan kualitas tertinggi yang digunakan dalam tanur tinggi juga mengalami tekanan akibat krisis properti yang berkepanjangan di China. Pabrik baja semakin menuntut diskon lebih besar untuk pembelian batubara kokas mereka, kata Li Xiaolong, analis CCTD lainnya.

Di sisi pasokan, tekanan bisa meningkat karena pusat pertambangan utama Shanxi bersiap untuk melanjutkan produksi yang sebelumnya dikurangi akibat inspeksi keselamatan tahun lalu. Sementara itu, Mongolia, pemasok utama batubara kokas ke China, berencana meningkatkan penjualannya ke negara tersebut hampir 20% tahun ini meskipun hal itu bisa mengorbankan pangsa pasar Australia.

CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH

research@cnbcindonesia.com

(rev/rev)