Russian coal exports to China are expected to decline again in 2025, despite the forecast for overall energy supply from Russia to China increasing this year, according to a report from state-owned news agency Interfax. China will probably import less coal from Russia this year, compared with 2024's levels, Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said last week. Russia last year had already exported less coal on the year to China, despite total Chinese coal imports climbing to a record high in 2024.]
 

South Korea's energy mix saw a major shift in 2024 as nuclear generation overtook coal as the single largest source of power generation, according to data from energy ministry Motie. Coal, which had dominated South Korea's electricity generation as the largest source since 2007, dropped to second place last year, and developing renewables capacity as well as LNG looks set to further diversify country's energy mix.
 

Indian utilities are resuming coal purchases after a ceasefire was mediated between India and Pakistan on 10 May, relieving fears of trade disruptions along India's west coast. The implications of the four-day military escalation on seaborne coal trade were limited because of weak demand from the Indian power, cement and sponge iron industries.

Coal stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) transshipment hub were relatively unchanged in the week to 11 May, during which increased deliveries to downstream utilities were mostly offset by the arrival of a possible thermal coal cargo from Australia. ARA stocks stood at 3.54mn t on 11 May, down slightly by 5,000t on the week, based on terminal data. Stocks had previously fallen by 98,000t in the week to 4 May.

Taiwan's thermal coal imports fell on the year for the second consecutive month in April, mainly because the island is working towards reducing coal-fired power and carbon emissions. Taiwan imported 4.69mn t of thermal coal in April, down by 4.5pc on the year, preliminary data from Taiwanese customs show. Imports rose by 5.6pc compared with March. This brought Taiwan's imports to 15.6mn t over January-April, down by 12pc on the year.

China's coal imports fell sharply in April compared with the same month last year, largely because of strong domestic supply. Imports, covering anthracite, coking coal and thermal coal, fell by 16.4pc to 37.83mn t from 45.25mn t in April 2024, according to customs data.
 

The provincial government of Jambi in Indonesia has temporarily suspended the passage of coal trucks on public roads to reduce congestion on thoroughfares during the upcoming journey of Hajj pilgrims. But the upcoming ban is unlikely to have any significant impact on supply as producers can use the riverways instead. The ban on coal trucks will take place during the evening hours of 13-22 May.

dd North Macedonian utility Elektrani na Severna Makedonija (ESM) has submitted an impact assessment for the exploration of a new coal mine in the country's Novaci municipality. The assessment is available for comments until 15 May, the environment and physical planning ministry said, after a public hearing on the project that was held on 12 May. If approved, the mine is targeted to begin operations in 2026 and would most likely supply coal to the nearby 700MW Bitola power station.

Coal stocks at South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) fell to 3.97mn t in the week to 11 May, down by 190,700t, after a vessel-loading backlog at the port eased and pushed export volumes higher. Market participants currently expect loading delays of around 48-72h, a more manageable rate now that adverse weather conditions that contributed to the backlog have cleared. RBCT exported 1.25mn t of thermal coal from 5-11 May, up by 234,000t on the week, according to vessel tracking data. Weekly rail deliveries to RBCT by state-owned Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) totalled 1.06mn t, just under the weekly average rail shipments of 1.09mn t so far this year.

The Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) has cut its margin rates for thermal coal futures contracts at all three of its coal hubs, with the main API 2 coal futures margins at their lowest levels in almost four years. The new rates, which came into effect on 12 May, cut the margin for API 2 Rotterdam coal futures by 8pc for the prompt-month May contract, to $7.10/t. This was the lowest prompt-month margin rate since July 2021 when the contract was $5.92/t.
 

The pilot phase launch of Turkey's domestic emissions trading system (ETS) next year is expected to weigh on the country's demand for thermal coal, although the extent of the potential impact is unclear, market participants said. Unlike the EU ETS, which imposes a direct cap on emissions, Turkey will apply a product carbon-intensity cap approach to sectors subject to the EU's cross-border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) — namely electricity, cement, iron and steel, aluminium and fertilisers — during the pilot phase, which is to be implemented over 2026-27.

India's imports of all types of coal declined on the year from April 2024 to February 2025 because domestic supplies rose, the federal coal ministry said. The country's imports of all types of coal — including thermal and coking coal — fell by 9.2pc from a year earlier to 220.3mn t during the 11-month period, the ministry said. India's production rose by 5.5pc from a year earlier to 929.15mn t over the same period. The drop in imports resulted in foreign exchange savings of about $6.93bn, it said.

Vietnam's coal imports rose from a year earlier in April to the highest level in 22 months, supported by utilities' restocking to cater for increases in power consumption during the dry period. Seaborne receipts reached 7.16mn t in April, up from about 5.9mn t a year earlier and 6.52mn t in March, according to customs data. This marks the highest level since the 7.2mn t coal imported in June 2023. Imports reached 24.45mn t in January-April, up from 20.56mn t a year earlier, Vietnamese customs data show. The data do not differentiate between coking and thermal coal.

South Africa's thermal coal exports rose by 6pc on the year to 6.57mn t in March, Global Trade Tracker data show, driven by India's coal-intensive sponge iron industry, after the government imposed protectionist measures on the country's steel industry. India remained South Africa's largest export destination with just under half of all exports, taking nearly 30pc more on the year at 3.27mn t in March, and 68pc more than in February.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has approved state support measures to stabilise Russia's struggling coal sector, including transport discounts and guaranteed export agreements for key mining regions, Russian daily newspapers Kommersant and Vedomosti have reported. Putin agreed support measures for the Russian coal industry on 7 May, detailed in a letter from deputy prime minister Alexander Novak dated 25 April. Novak proposed a 12.8pc discount on rail transport fees to northwestern and southern Russian ports in May-December this year — to be offset by state subsidies — as well as the reinstatement of a 60pc discount on long-distance transport fees over the period.
 

Colombia's largest coal miner Drummond has agreed a deal with workers affiliated with more than a dozen unions regarding a four-year contract offer for pay and benefits. The collective bargaining talks are the first since 2022, when 10 unions settled on a three-year agreement. The new labour convention will run from 2025-28.

Coal inventories at China's Qinhuangdao port reached an all-time high, supported by steady increases in inbound supplies. Stocks at Qinghuangdao port reached 7.61mn t during the week ending 14 May, up from 7.47mn t in the previous week. This surpassed the previous peak of 7.54mn t recorded on 10 March. Port offtake, including those by utilities, declined to 3.15mn t for the same period. This was down from 3.49mn t a week earlier, while vessel queues eased to 5/d during the period from 6.14/d in the last week.

Indonesian shipments of palm kernel shells (PKS) increased by 13pc on the year in March, because of strong biomass demand from key market Japan. Overall PKS exports increased to 447,000t in March from 394,000t a year earlier, according to Indonesian customs data. Japan accounted for 94pc of Indonesian receipts that month.