The international thermal coal market remained locked in a buyer-seller standoff over the past week, with trade thin and prices in some regions easing slightly while holding within a narrow high-level range.

On the supply side, Indonesian Kalimantan river levels stayed low, constraining barge transport, high-CV cargoes remained scarce and some miners had sold out their 2026 volumes. Russian Far East ports held limited spot supply, with most sellers' full-year resources already committed. South African miners at Richards Bay kept offers high on rising diesel costs.

Demand showed clear wait-and-see sentiment. Chinese buyers sought price cuts and utilities deferred tenders. India was in a festive demand lull, with sponge iron and cement producers buying only small volumes as needed. European gas price volatility kept coal-fired generation economics strong, with utilities restocking for year-end and Q1 2027, though actual purchases were limited. Widening bid-ask spreads capped deals, and the bullish sentiment from earlier supply tightness gradually faded as the market waited for fresh demand or supply disruption to break the balance.

Supply

Indonesia Tight supply continued to underpin miners' firm offers last week, but Indonesian coal prices edged lower as Chinese and Indian buyers pushed for discounts and actual trades stayed limited.

As of October 30, the CCI index for import 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal at Indonesia ports was assessed at $79/t, FOB, down $1.5/t from the previous week but up $2.5/t from the same period a month earlier. The CCI 4700 Import index stood at $102.5/t, FOB, down $1.5/t week on week but up $4/t from a month earlier.

Rainfall in Kalimantan and Sumatra has been limited recently, with no substantive improvement in river levels and barge transport still hampered. Spot high-CV coal is extremely scarce, with some producers sold out for the year. Miners maintained high premiums for high-CV coal but faced clear buyer resistance. Inquiries for mid-CV coal also weakened, while low-CV coal lost some appeal as its premium held firm.

On demand, South Korea and Taiwan kept steady inquiries for mid-CV coal, while Vietnam, Cambodia and Bangladesh stayed active, with Vietnam's new import tender offering some support. Meanwhile, miners were busy filing 2027 work plans and budgets (RKAB) for production quotas, making them more cautious. The Indonesian market is currently in a stalemate, with miners keen to hold prices but buyers equally limited in accepting high premiums, and supply is unlikely to see a clear release before the end of 2026.

Russia Despite continued tight supply, Russian coal prices fell slightly over the past week. As of October 30, the CCI index for Russia 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal at Far East ports was assessed at $102.5/t, FOB, down $3/t from the previous week but up $3/t from a month earlier. The CCI 5500 Import index was at $111/t, FOB, down $3/t week on week but up $3/t from the same period a month earlier.

Russian coal operating and logistics costs remain high, and rising domestic heating demand as winter arrives has further squeezed export resources. Market sources said most sellers had sold out their full-year inventories, with limited volumes available for November-December loading. Supply at Far East ports has not improved, and low Indian bid prices have kept deals scarce, with some Russian sellers preferring South Korea, where bids are relatively higher.

Australia Australian high-CV coal prices weakened slightly over the past week, mainly as Chinese buyers' inquiry interest faded. As of October 30, Newcastle 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal fell to around $112/t, down more than $3/t week on week. The 6,000 Kcal/kg NAR price was largely stable from the previous week at around $150/t.

Seller offers remained firm, with earlier prompt supply tightness and shipment delays offering modest support, keeping high-CV prices relatively stable, while buyers also saw Australian coal as still competitive against high domestic Chinese prices. On supply, Australian coal production was broadly steady, but prompt saleable cargoes were not ample, especially high-CV coal.

On demand, Chinese buyers stayed on the sidelines and Japanese and South Korean demand was steady, leaving trade thin. Chinese port inventories are high, and traders prefer to clear stocks before buying, sharply reducing inquiries for Australian coal. Some market participants, however, noted Chinese buyers may shift more toward coal-fired power on weak hydropower performance and return to the seaborne market for cargoes. The Australian market is in a weak supply-demand balance, with prices tracking Chinese buying sentiment.

South Africa Richards Bay thermal coal prices rebounded last week after earlier declines. As of October 30, South African 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was up more than $1/t from the previous week at close to $118/t, FOB. South African 6,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal edged down from the previous week to around $130/t, FOB.

Support for the South African market came mainly from steady interest from Indian sponge iron producers, as South African coal quality and specifications better suit Indian direct reduced iron equipment and prices remain below Russian and Australian resources. German and South Korean buyers sought high-CV coal, Indian utilities focused on low-CV coal for blending, and Southeast Asia also sought mid-CV coal.

During trading, however, widening bid-ask spreads limited actual deals, with Indian buyers warning margins were unsustainable at current price levels and the cement sector largely exiting on high costs. On the miner side, sharply higher diesel prices eroded profits, keeping South African offers high overall.

Demand

China Import thermal coal demand weakened noticeably over the past week, with buyers seeking price cuts and waiting for a pullback. Market participants said recent tenders for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal were priced at around 679 yuan/t, CFR with VAT.

As of October 30, the CCI index for import 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal at China southern ports was assessed at $91.5/t, CFR, down $2.0/t from the previous week. The CCI 4700 Import index was at $113.5/t, CFR, down $2.5/t week on week, while the CCI 5500 Import index was at $136/t, CFR, down $3.0/t from the previous week.

Domestic coal supply has improved significantly recently. Maintenance on the Daqin line ended two days early, with rail volumes recovering to 1.2-1.3 million tonnes per day. In mid-October, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting in Shanxi to advance resumed production, and Shanxi output may rise in November. Expectations of a warmer winter also weighed on sentiment.

Port coal inventories held steady, with some traders who took cargoes around the National Day holiday seeking to clear stocks and planning to return to the market only after destocking. In the near term, Chinese buyers will focus on drawing down inventories and waiting for domestic supply to recover, but weak hydropower performance could trigger a rapid return of import demand at any time.

India Indian demand remained sluggish. With holidays approaching, Indian buyers were largely absent, and a weaker rupee raised import costs, leaving end users to draw on existing stocks and buy only as needed. Even in the import-reliant sponge iron sector, bid-ask spreads widened markedly, with high prices squeezing margins and some firms shifting to small-lot spot purchases from traders.

Utility inventories have built up somewhat. Data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) showed Indian power plant coal stocks at 20.49 million tonnes as of November 1, up 2.85% from the previous week. Days of cover stood at 6.54 days, below 6.4 days a week earlier. On the day, 92 plants were at critical low inventory levels, three fewer than the previous week.

The market expects power demand to ease gradually after the holiday season, and with improved rail wagon supply, domestic coal supply is likely to improve, further curbing import demand. Looking ahead, Indian import momentum will be weak in the near term, with buyers broadly expecting prices to pull back.

Europe European coal prices held broadly steady, but sharp gas price swings kept utilities cautious. As of October 30, the ICE Dutch TTF benchmark December 2026 gas futures closed at 103.944 euros/MWh, up 10.75% from 93.853 euros/MWh a week earlier.

By late last week, the CIF price of 6,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal at Europe's three ARA ports had fallen to around $146/t, down nearly $2/t week on week.

With coal-fired generation still strongly competitive against gas, local utilities sought prompt cargoes to restock for year-end and Q1 2027. Actual generation, however, was constrained by logistics and limited coal-fired capacity. One trader noted German hard coal generation fell 5% in the first four days of the week, and despite a high clean dark spread, low Rhine river levels could pose operational hurdles for some plants.

For European buyers, Colombian coal remains the top choice, but high prices have pushed some to other origins, whose FOB prices are also firm on Northeast Asian restocking, further raising CIF costs. Turkish utilities continued to seek Russian prompt cargoes to replenish stocks, but high prices curbed deals to some extent, while some Egyptian cement buyers showed import interest. Overall, European restocking demand provides a floor for the market, but high prices and logistics constraints limit actual purchases.