Coal production in the United States is projected at 533 million short tons (484 million tonnes) last year, slightly higher than the January forecast of 532.9 million short tons, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on February 10.

The output is expected to fall 2.53% on the year to 519.5 million short tons in 2026 along with retreating coal consumption, the report said. Output is anticipated to slip further to about 500 million short tons in 2027, a 3.6% year-on-year drop.

Actual coal production in January came in at 46 million short tons, 3 million short tons below the previous forecast, which was mainly weighed down by reduced consumption and weather-related production disruptions.

The EIA raised its coal consumption outlook for 2026. The power sector coal use is now projected at 390.5 million short tons, far higher than the 376 million short tons estimated in January. The volume, however, is still 7% lower than the year-ago level.

In response to surging electricity demand caused by winter Storm Fern, U.S. coal-fired generation increased in January, pushing actual coal consumption 4 million short tons higher than the month-ago forecast.

In 2026, total U.S. coal consumption is projected at 424.4 million short tons, higher than last month's estimate. This is largely due to expectations that natural gas prices will remain above previously forecast levels for much of the year, with the power sector accounting for more than 90% of total consumption.

Meanwhile, coal usage in retail and other industrial sectors is anticipated to reduce 7.92% on the year to 18.6 million short tons, while other industrial sectors are set to utilize 17.8 million short tons of coal, falling 9.18% from the year prior.

The EIA projects 2027 coal consumption at 408.4 million short tons, down 3.77% year on year. Coal use in the power sector is expected to drop further to 375 million short tons, while retail and other sectors slide 5.38% on the year to 17.6 million short tons.

Regionally, most of the U.S. is expected to see falling coal burns in 2026 and 2027. In the first quarter of 2026, the nation's coal consumption is forecast to drop 4% on the year to 105 million short tons, as January's cold gives way to milder weather.

The second quarter is expected to experience a steeper drop. Coal use is poised to fall 10% on the year to 81 million short tons, as seasonal heating demand fades and natural gas prices retreat from winter peaks.

Regarding coal exports, the EIA predicts steady growth in U.S. coal shipments abroad during the reporting period, driven by both metallurgical and thermal grades. Total exports are anticipated to rise 17.11% year on year from 2025 to 100.2 million short tons in 2026, and further grow 1.20% to 101.4 million short tons in 2027.

Metallurgical coal exports are forecast to climb from 50.5 million short tons in 2025 to 56 million short tons in 2026 and 56.3 million short tons in 2027. Thermal coal exports follow suit, edging up 1.38% year on year to 44.2 million short tons in 2026 before reaching 45.1 million short tons in 2027.

As one of the primary sources of carbon emissions, the contraction of coal-fired power's share becomes a key driver of emissions reduction. Declining coal consumption has contributed to year-on-year decreases in U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The EIA forecasts U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions to fall 1.4% year on year from 2025, with coal-related emissions dropping 6%, mainly due to declining coal consumption for power generation.

In 2027, CO2 emissions are expected to edge down 0.56% from the 2026 level, a slower pace of decline mainly attributable to the anticipated decrease in coal consumption, particularly in the power sector.

Overall, cyclical fluctuations in U.S. coal production and consumption cannot reverse the broader downward trajectory. While this may lead to sliding carbon emissions, phased reversals remain possible. The U.S. coal industry is likely to continue navigating a fragile balance between seasonal demand volatility and long-term structural adjustment.