Thermal coal prices remained on a downward trajectory at China's northern transshipment ports, yet tentative signs pointing to a possible narrowing of decline, with traders increasingly unwilling to sell lower, even as inventories kept rising and seasonal demand remained soft.

CCI indices for major thermal coal grades traded at northern ports have fallen for seven consecutive trading days by the end of March 13, weighed down by recovering mine output and rail deliveries, as well as soft offseason consumption.

Yet over March 12-13, participants reported growing resistance as some sellers held offers steady or refused deep discounts, while others said they would rather keep stockpiles for some time than sell at current low levels.

"Today we see a moderate pickup in inquiries for mid-CV grades, though downstream acceptance is still low," a Zhejiang-based trader source said. Another trader source saw a rise in bargain-hunting as prices fell, suggesting a possible slowdown in decline or potential leveling off next week.

Most deals still fetched below the benchmark indices. A deal of 50,000-tonne Shanxi 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was heard traded at a 3 yuan/t discount to the CCI 5500 index, while one trade for 1%-sulfur 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was reported at 560 yuan/t delivered to a northern port.

Combined stocks at Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, Jingtang, and Huanghua ports reached 26.55 million tonnes as of early March 12, up 4.2% week on week and nearly 10% from a month earlier just before the Chinese New Year holiday. Despite rising stocks, traders appeared more focused on protecting margins than panic-selling.

Meanwhile, a stronger cold front forecast by the Central Meteorological Observatory for March 13-22 is expected to push average temperatures 1-3°C below normal across northern China. The chill could briefly lift inland plant coal burn, which relies almost entirely on domestic supply.

Consumption at power plants remained relatively subdued. Data showed that coal burn at inland power plants averaged 3.20 million tonnes as of March 11, marking a significant 10.8% fall from a week earlier and 4.1% decline compared with a month ago.

Coastal plants, which lean more on imports, saw consumption dip 3.5% week on week but rebound 13.2% month on month.

Another clear support comes from the near stagnant trades in the seaborne import market. Southern power utilities have repeatedly canceled tenders in recent days, due to delivered costs far exceeding comparable domestic coal by 40 yuan/t or more, which gave the domestic market some breathing room.

Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal was heard offered at $4-5/t premium to the benchmark index. Sporadic deals were still heard settled for less than $59/t FOB, as power plants restocked to meet essential needs. Several Chinese traders reportedly redirected long-term contracted supplies to higher-paying buyers in India, East and Southeast Asia instead.