Indonesia’s seaborne coal exports ended a three-month streak of month-on-month declines in September 2026, edging up slightly, while the year-on-year drop remained significant though narrower than the previous month.

Indonesia’s seaborne coal exports totaled 36.45 million tonnes in September 2026, down 18.11% year on year, with the decline narrowing by 5.23 percentage points from the previous month, and up 0.52% from a month earlier, according to Kpler ship-tracking data.

Exports remained subdued during the month, pressured by a combination of regulatory uncertainty and lower river levels.

On the supply side, falling production was not the main driver of tighter Indonesian supply. Most major producers did not cut output in the first half of 2026. Indonesia’s Bayan Resources experienced force majeure following a minority stake sale before resuming shipments, indicating that the regulatory framework played a role in determining Indonesian supply.

Low river levels in Indonesia limited barge loading. Persistent dry weather significantly lowered inland water levels, with some sections dropping to around 4 meters, forcing barge operators to reduce shipment sizes and further constraining coal supply.

Regulatory uncertainty added further pressure on supply. Although additional quotas brought some supply back, quotas were never the primary constraint, and supply could continue to shrink if dry-season weather persists.

By destination, Indonesia exported the most coal to the Chinese mainland in September 2026, at 12.42 million tonnes, down 32.97% year on year and down 15.48% from the previous month.

Indonesia exported 8.53 million tonnes of coal to India in September 2026, down 3.63% year on year but up 22.03% from a month earlier. Exports to the Philippines stood at 3.37 million tonnes, up 6.97% year on year and up 9.02% month on month.

Indonesia exported 1.87 million tonnes of coal to Malaysia in September 2026, down 26.02% year on year and down 10.69% from the previous month. Exports to Vietnam were 1.86 million tonnes, up 4.77% year on year but down 8.37% month on month.

On the demand side, the slight month-on-month increase in Indonesia’s coal exports was mainly supported by a recovery in demand from some Asian markets including India and the Philippines, but slower buying from China, Malaysia and other markets continued to weigh on overall export growth.

In January-September 2026, Indonesia exported a cumulative 338 million tonnes of seaborne coal, down 6.16% year on year. Of that, 129 million tonnes went to the Chinese mainland, down 6.38% from the same period a year earlier.