Indonesia's energy ministry has dismissed as invalid circulating rumors of approved 2026 coal production quotas for major mining companies, including steep cuts for many producers and full approvals for others, saying approvals have yet to be issued.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has not yet issued approval for the 2026 RKAB, and all companies are still in the evaluation stage, said Surya Herjuna, Director of Coal Business Guidance at the Directorate General of Minerals and Coal of the ESDM, during an interview with Bloomberg Technoz on February 5.

He described the leaked tables and figures spreading on social media as hoaxes. These rumors, which gained traction on social platforms and in some business publications, listed alleged approved production volumes for dozens of coal firms, with some facing drastic reductions ranging 40-80% against submitted levels, while a few reportedly faced no cuts.

The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI-ICMA), representing miners accounting for a significant share of national output, has previously voiced strong objections to reported production curbs. It warned that sharp cuts from levels in the previous three-year plans or 2025 realized output could disrupt operations, risk mass layoffs, and harm regional economies.

Source with the ICMA also confirmed with Sxcoal that the RKAB process is still ongoing, and no RKAB 2026 approvals have been officially issued yet, noting some companies that have submitted their proposed figures are following the latest recommendations, while others sticking to their initial submissions.

The government signaled in early January plans to reduce overall coal production to around 600 million tonnes in 2026, down roughly 24% from an estimated realized production of 790 million tonnes in 2025, as part of efforts to address oversupply and shore up thermal coal prices.

However, individual company approvals remain pending, and the ESDM has also not confirmed an aggregate national quota. Transitional rules remain valid, allowing production up to 25% of planned 2026 volumes under the earlier three-year mechanism until the end of March.

In another interview, Tri Winarno, director of the Mineral and Coal Division, emphasized that this reduction measure would be implemented in a proportional and differentiated manner, taking into account the contributions of various enterprises to the country.

A key consideration in the new round of quota allocation is the non-ax national revenue (PNBP) paid by enterprises to the state. Enterprises that have made significant contributions to the country's finances in the long term are expected to experience relatively moderate reductions in their quotas; those with lower contributions may face larger reductions, Winarno said.

The controversy follows a policy shift reverting RKAB validity to annual terms from three years, requiring fresh submissions and aiming for greater flexibility amid market volatility.

Industry sources and analysts say uncertainty over final quotas has contributed to recent volatility in Indonesian coal prices and prompted some producers to pause spot export offerings. The ministry has yet to provide an official timeline for completing approvals, but it is highly likely to be completed by the end of the first quater.

Some participants viewed this clarification by the ESDM as a softer tone regarding this year's cut plans after encountering strong resistance from the mining sector and a move to reduce the growing panic sentiment. Some reckoned that the final quotas for this year may be higher than the currently circulated levels in the media.