India's coal consumption is projected to more than double by mid-century, with a subsequent decline as the country shifts to cleaner energy, according to long-term projections published by the government think tank, NITI Aayog.

Under the current policy scenario (assuming no major decarbonization measures), India's coal demand is expected to peak at 2.62 billion tonnes by 2050, more than double the current 1.26 billion tonnes, the report stated.

Industrial demand is expected to keep coal consumption relatively high, at around 1.8 billion tonnes, even by 2070.

India has set a target for net-zero emissions by 2070. Under this scenario, coal consumption is projected to peak at 1.83 billion tonnes in 2050 before falling sharply to just 161 million tonnes by 2070. By that time, nearly all coal will be used by hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and cement, which will require Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technology to achieve this ambitious target.

As the world's second-largest coal consumer, nearly three-fourths of India's power is generated from coal. To meet the expected demand, the country plans to increase its coal-fired power capacity to 307 GW by 2034-35, up from the current 212 GW.

The report also warns that coal will remain a crucial energy source for supporting the increasing generation of solar and wind power, and for balancing the grid.

India will need to significantly lower costs for battery storage, nuclear power, grid expansions, and clean technologies to reduce its reliance on coal. The report adds that even if coal-fired power plants continue to operate, many of them will run less often and will be used primarily to address peak power demand and emergencies.