Global seaborne thermal coal exports are expected to decline in 2025 for the first time since 2020, primarily due to falling coal-fired power generation in key Asian markets.

In 2025, global thermal coal exports are projected to reach 946 million tonnes, a 5% decrease (nearly 50 million tonnes) compared to the previous year, according to Kpler. This forecast is even lower than the pre-pandemic export level of 963 million tonnes in 2019.

As the largest coal-consuming region globally, Asia's thermal coal imports are expected to decline 6.4% year on year (YoY) in 2025, a key factor contributing to the global decrease in seaborne thermal coal exports. This suggests that global coal exports may have peaked and are likely to contract further in the future.

Currently, Asian countries account for 89% of global coal imports, underscoring the concentrated nature of coal shipments. Kpler estimated that global coal exports to Asia will total 843 million tonnes, a decline of approximately 60 million tonnes YoY.

China remains the largest coal importer globally. The country is expected to import slightly over 300 million tonnes of coal in 2025, down 12.4% YoY, followed by India (157 million tonnes, -2.8% YoY), Japan (100 million tonnes, -4.7% YoY), South Korea (76.22 million tonnes, +5.1% YoY), and Vietnam (44.99 million tonnes, +4.0% YoY).

China's significant import decline, along with weakened demand from India, Japan, and China's Taiwan, weighed down overall seaborne thermal coal trade.

However, among the top five importers, South Korea and Vietnam saw YoY increases in imports. Additionally, other importers like Malaysia, Thailand, and Turkey also posted YoY growth, while their increases were far outpaced by declines in China and India.

As two of the world's largest coal importers, China and India account for 48% of global thermal coal imports. The decline in their coal imports in 2025 is largely attributed to increased domestic coal production and the growth of alternative energy sources.

In the same year, China's seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to fall by nearly 43 million tonnes or 12.4% YoY, to 304 million tonnes, while India's imports are forecast to decrease by 4.58 million tonnes or 2.8% YoY, to 157 million tonnes, according to Kpler.

Both China and India introduced policies in 2025 to support domestic coal production, boosting output while creating jobs. However, China's ongoing efforts to address overcapacity in the coal sector could lead to a reduction in domestic coal production in the coming years, which may limit further declines in coal import demand in the near-to-medium term.

Meanwhile, China is rapidly expanding its clean energy capacity, with solar and wind power reaching new highs. This expansion, paired with growth in nuclear power capacity, may further reduce coal's share in China's energy mix.

Among the top five thermal coal importers, four saw declines in coal-fired power generation in 2025. In China, coal's share in the power mix fell to a historical low of 55.3%, down from nearly 59% in 2024, data showed by energy think tank Ember.

Record-breaking domestic coal output in India, coupled with a decline in coal-fired power generation, led to slower coal consumption and inventory buildups. The Indian government also introduced policies to permit coal exports, which could increase competition among exporters. If India's coal production continues to grow and coal power demand decreases, export permissions may become the norm.

In 2025, coal-fired power generation accounted for just under 70% of India's power mix, down from an average of over 77% in the past two years. This significant drop is attributed to the rapid development of solar and wind power generation and the highest hydropower output in over six years.

India is also aggressively expanding its clean energy capacity. As clean energy generation continues to rise, it may squeeze coal's share in the power mix and further reduce coal consumption.

India's declining coal imports will also squeeze profit of other major coal exporters, such as Indonesia and Australia.

In the long term, continuous drops in coal consumption from major importers like China and India may lead to a sustained decline in global coal exports, accelerating contraction across the entire sector.