Global coal demand reached a record high in 2025, but the seaborne coal trade, particularly in Asia, pulled back from its peak. Despite continued growth in coal consumption in Asia, seaborne coal imports to the region declined.

According to Kpler shipping data, Asia's seaborne coal imports totaled 1.15 billion tonnes in 2025, a 4.1% decrease from the previous year's record of 1.2 billion tonnes. The decline in thermal coal imports was even steeper, falling by 4.6% to 895 million tonnes.

This raises the question of whether this decline marks the beginning of a structural downturn in the seaborne thermal coal market or if it is just a temporary fluctuation. The core issue revolves around the two largest coal producers and consumers, China and India.

Both countries experienced significant changes in coal production and consumption trends that are likely to impact the seaborne coal market in the coming years.

In China, coal production reached a record 4.83 billion tonnes in 2025, a 1.2% increase from the previous year. However, coal-fired power generation declined by 1%, marking the first decrease in a decade.

This drop was driven by the rapid growth of renewable energy capacity, which are now meeting the country's electricity demand. Despite this, China still imported thermal coal, particularly for coastal and southern power plants. These plants blend imported coal with lower-quality domestic coal to meet environmental standards.

In India, domestic coal production was projected to reach 1.1 billion tonnes in 2025, up from 1.09 billion tonnes in 2024.

However, like China, India saw a 3% decline in coal-fired power generation in 2025. This was also driven by the expansion of renewable power generation capacity. Despite this, Indian coastal power plants continued to rely on imported coal, and non-power industries still require coal for production.

As a result, China's seaborne thermal coal imports in 2025 decreased by 11.5% to 325 million tonnes, marking the first drop since 2022. India's imports also fell by 2.2% to 160 million tonnes, continuing the downward trend from the previous year.

Together, China and India's reduced imports amounted to a drop of 45.76 million tonnes in 2025. While the decline in seaborne thermal coal imports from these two countries may not have a major immediate impact on exporters, the overall trend suggests that the peak of the seaborne coal trade in Asia may have passed.

Future market dynamics will depend on the pace of energy transition in key consumer countries, domestic coal production growth, and regional trade shifts. Despite this, global coal demand has not yet reached its peak, and the outlook for seaborne coal remains influenced by evolving energy policies and market conditions in major coal-consuming regions.