Despite Europe accelerating its coal phase-out, global coal demand is expected to remain relatively stable by 2030, primarily supported by the demand from major coal-consuming countries in Asia, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA's Coal 2025 indicated that global coal consumption is projected to decline by about 3% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, with global coal-fired power generation expected to drop below 2021 levels.

However, for much of Asia, coal will still be critical for power security and industrial activities, offsetting the more significant declines in coal consumption expected in developed economies.

Key consuming countries

Global coal consumption is expected to plateau, peaking at around 8.85 billion tonnes in 2025, before a slight decline to 8.58 billion tonnes in 2030.

China, as the largest consumer of coal, currently accounted for over half of global demand. China's coal consumption is expected to stabilize at around 4.95 billion tonnes in 2025, with a gradual decrease to 4.77 billion tonnes by 2030, driven by the rapid deployment of renewable energy.

By 2030, China's demand for thermal coal is expected to reach 3.03 billion tonnes, while coking coal demand will be around 665 million tonnes.

India is anticipated to become the largest growth market for coal, primarily driven by power and industrial demand. India's coal consumption is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3%, with total growth exceeding 200 million tonnes. While India's total coal demand is projected to increase by 17% over the next five years, the share of coal in its electricity mix is expected to decline from over 70% in 2025 to around 60% in 2030.

In addition, countries in southeast Asia like Indonesia and Vietnam, along with some south Asian nations, will continue to see rising coal demand. In contrast, developed economies such as the EU, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea will experience continued significant declines in coal consumption due to energy transitions and carbon reduction policies.

Although global electricity demand will continue to support coal consumption in the short term, the share of coal in global power generation is expected to fall from 35% in 2024 to 27% by 2030, as renewable energy increasingly takes its place in the global energy mix.

Major supplying countries

Global coal production is expected to stabilize at 9.111 billion tonnes in 2025 after peaking at 9.114 billion tonnes in 2024, and gradually decline to 8.64 billion tonnes by 2030.

With an abundant supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and lower prices, international coal trade is also expected to shrink, putting pressure on coal prices, and leading to intensified competition among exporters.

As a major coal producer, China's coal production is forecast to reach 4.73 billion tonnes in 2025, and gradually decrease to 4.44 billion tonnes by 2030 due to a slowdown in demand.

India's coal production will continue to rise, reaching 1.09 billion tonnes in 2025, and is expected to increase to 1.28 billion tonnes by 2030, primarily driven by domestic demand and government policies encouraging commercial mining.

In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by 7% year on year to 778 million tonnes. Over the next five years, Indonesia's coal production will mainly be influenced by exports and growing domestic demand. Domestic consumption is expected to increase by 70 million tonnes, while exports will drop by 137 million tonnes.

By 2030, Indonesia's coal production is forecasted to decline by 107 million tonnes to 671 million tonnes. Coal exports are expected to decrease by 6.1% to 368 million tonnes, the largest decline among major Asian countries.

Australia's coal production is expected to fall to 446 million tonnes in 2025, and further decrease to 409 million tonnes by 2030, with actual supply depending on the cost competitiveness of existing operations, the scale of a few existing mine expansion projects, and the overall impact of policies on investment.

In 2025, Russia's coal production is expected to remain stable at 427 million tonnes, with a slight decrease by 2030 to 422 million tonnes due to sanctions and a shift in the country's coal export focus towards the East.

In the U.S., production declines slowed under policy support, but the downward trend continued. The EU's coal production will continue to decline rapidly due to the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.

Overall, supply growth is concentrated in Asia, especially in India, while most other regions show a contraction.

Coal trade

IEA forecasted that global coal trade will peak at 1.54 billion tonnes in 2024, and drop by 5% to 1.47 billion tonnes in 2025, and further decreasing to 1.3 billion tonnes by 2030.

The contraction in trade is primarily driven by a reduction in imports from China and India. In China, coal imports are expected to continue declining due to sufficient inventory, increased domestic production, and a slowdown in demand, especially for thermal coal, putting pressure on exporters like Indonesia and Australia.

In India, while domestic production is being ramped up, slowing import growth is expected, although imports will still remain at a significant level.

Traditional importing markets such as Japan, South Korea, and the EU will continue to experience structural decline.

Among exporting countries, Indonesia, as the largest exporter, is expected to see a significant decrease in exports, mainly due to weaker demand from China. Australia, however, will see a smaller decline in exports due to stable demand for metallurgical coal, while Russia's market will undergo a shift in focus toward Asia due to Western sanctions.

The report predicted that metallurgical coal trade will fare better than thermal coal, primarily supported by the expansion of steel production capacity in India and Indonesia. By 2030, trade volumes are expected to largely remain at 2024 levels.

Overall, the next five years will see a trend of global coal market volumes peaking and structural differentiation. Emerging economies in Asia, particularly India and southeast Asia, will remain the key drivers of coal consumption growth, while China, as the largest market, enters a gradual decline phase.

Despite coal's decreasing share in the global energy mix, it will continue to play an important role in areas like power security and industrial raw materials, particularly in fast-growing Asian economies.

In the coming years, coal market fluctuations will mainly depend on the policy direction of China and India, the pace of renewable energy development, and the competitiveness of natural gas prices.