Coal production in the United States is projected to rise 1.8% year on year (YoY) for 2025, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on August 12.

The output is predicted to reach 521 million short tons (473 million tonnes) in 2025, slightly higher than the July forecast of 520 million short tons, the report said. The growth is primarily attributed to robust production in the first half of the year, which totaled 267 million short tons.

Coal production in the Appalachian region gained by 6% on the year during the given period, driven by a recovery from the low base in 2024 following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and increased demand for coal-fired power due to rising natural gas prices.

Coal output in the second half this year is set to fall to 255 million short tons, the report said. Production across all coal-producing regions is expected to tick down, as coal-fired power plants prioritize digesting existing inventories.

As more coal-fired utilities retire and remaining plants maintain high stocks of the fuel, U.S. coal production is projected to further drop to 490 million short tons in 2026.

In terms of consumption, the report forecasted U.S. coal consumption to rise 6.73% YoY to 439 million short tons in 2025, higher than 435 million short tons anticipated in July.

Coal consumption in the power sector is forecast to climb 8.3% YoY to 405 million short tons, accounting for over 92% of total consumption. The increase is closely tied to fluctuations in natural gas prices. The average Henry Hub natural gas spot price in 2025 is estimated at $3.60/million British thermal units (MMBtu), a significant jump from $2.19/MMBtu in 2024, temporarily intensifying the pricing competitiveness of coal-fired power generation.

However, coal usage in the retail and other industrial sectors is projected to reduce 9% YoY to 20 million short tons.

In 2026, as natural gas prices are expected to rise further to $4.34/MMBtu, coal consumption is poised to decline to 383 million short tons. Industrial usage will fall from 22 million short tons in 2024 to 18.7 million short tons.

Regarding exports, given persistent global supply surplus and declining prices in thermal and metallurgical coal, the report estimated U.S. coal exports in 2025 to decline 10.22% YoY to 96.6 million short tons, higher than July's anticipation of 95.7 million short tons.

Thermal coal exports are projected to retreat 7.1% YoY to 47.1 million short tons, while metallurgical coal exports are expected to hit 49.6 million short tons, down 12.83% YoY.

Thermal coal producers have shifted sales to the domestic market, while metallurgical coal exports face dual pressure from China's tariff policies curbing American coal shipments and the sluggish global steel industry.

As global markets recover from the current price slump, metallurgical coal exports are expected to stabilize in 2026.

In 2026, U.S. coal exports are forecast to stand at 94.3 million short tons, down 2.38% YoY. Thermal coal exports are projected to be 44.8 million short tons, while metallurgical coal exports are estimated to hit 49.5 million short tons.

The report also noted that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions amounted to 4.78 billion tonnes in 2024. Increased coal, natural gas, and petroleum consumption will push up energy-related CO2 emissions by 1.6% YoY to 4.86 billion tonnes in 2025. Coal-related CO2 emissions may rise 5.45% YoY to 793 million tonnes.

Following retreating coal consumption, energy-related CO2 emissions are set to fall 1.1% YoY to 4.80 billion tonnes in 2026.

Such volatility reflects the environmental cost of coal usage in the U.S. Although its share of primary energy consumption is expected to fall to about 15% in 2026, its impact on carbon emissions remains inevitable.

Short-term oscillations in natural gas prices may underpin coal consumption, but long-term constraints, including coal-fired plant retirements, intensifying renewable energy completion, and international market pressures, will continue to depress the coal industry. The traditional role of the U.S. coal sector is gradually diminishing under energy transition and varying global market dynamics.