China imported 44.05 million tonnes of coal in November, up 5.6% from the previous month but down 19.9% on the year, according to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs.

Imported coal retained a notable cost effectiveness against domestic supplies as domestic prices surged in November. This price gap contributed to a growth in coal imports, though the increase was modest.

The rally in domestic coal prices was primarily driven by limited supply growth, low portside inventories, and middlemen holding back on sales. Despite relatively strong demand, most power utilities prioritized fulfilling long-term contracts during the seasonal shift from peak to off-peak periods, showing limited interests in purchasing imported cargoes.

The rainy season in Indonesia continued to disrupt coal production and logistics, with some miners having already sold out their cargoes to the year end. Meanwhile, tight Russian coal supplies, resulted from weather and transport constraints, further constrained the availability of imported coal.

In addition, November-delivery cargoes were largely ordered after late September when power plants' coal inventories were sufficient, and the peak demand period had not yet arrived. As a result, utilities were not so active to restock in advance.

However, the year-on-year decline in November expanded by 10.15 percentage points compared to October, owing to the high base of 54.98 million tonnes in November 2024.

Looking ahead, coal imports in December are expected to rebound with the winter heating demand. Power plants, aiming to ensure sufficient supply, are likely to increase procurement of imported coal.

Although frequent cold fronts are forecasted to hit China in December, temperatures are expected to remain near average or even slightly higher, which may limit the upside space for coal consumption.

Additionally, policy changes from major coal exporters are expected to exert uncertainty in coal supply. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) planned to lift the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO), potentially reducing coal exports, while Russia has increased rail freight tariffs by 10% as of December 1, 2025.

Industry insiders forecasted China's coal imports in 2025 to reach approximately 480 million tonnes, down 11% or so year on year.

However, achieving the expected volume is challenging. As of November, China imported a total 431.68 million tonnes of coal, a 12% year-on-year decline. To reach the forecast level, December imports will need to exceed 48.32 million tonnes.