Thermal coal prices across China's key producing regions largely stabilized amid shrinking supply and cooling demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, except for small adjustments at some operating mines.

Of the 90 coal mines surveyed by Sxcoal on February 13, one mine raised prices by 13 yuan/t, while one lowered prices by 15 yuan/t on average. The remaining 88 kept prices stable.

The supply-side pressure is mounting. Most private mines in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi have already ceased operations, and state-owned mines in Shanxi are set to follow with 3-5 days of routine maintenance.

Market sources confirmed that workers from distant provinces have already begun their journeys home. Even among the few mines still running, production has also slowed. They focused on clearing existing inventories rather than active production. A mine in Inner Mongolia's Ordos plans to halt operations once its stockpiles are cleared on February 14.

The demand-side calm is equally pronounced. As temperatures moderated across much of the country, coal burns at power plants fell below year-ago levels. Daily coal burns at power plants under six major coastal power groups stood at 711,700 tonnes on February 20, down 2.3% year on year and 15.9% month on month, data showed.

End users presented muted interest in building new stockpiles ahead of the holidays, with current stocks sufficient for 18.7 days of usage. Their procurement remained anchored to long-term contract supplies, while spot inquiries were few.

Despite overall stability, regional differences remain. In Shaanxi's Yulin, a few larger mines saw auction settlements climb notably, with 4,300 Kcal/kg NAR mixed coal jumping 40 yuan/t to 335 yuan/t, mine-mouth with VAT, mainly buoyed by decent truck arrivals and portside price rallies.

However, overall thin liquidity is eroding robust upward strength. A Shenmu-based miner reported some auction failures and price reductions. Mixed 5,350 Kcal/kg NAR coal was traded at 464 yuan/t, mine-mouth with VAT, down 9 yuan/t from the last auction.

Similarly, in Inner Mongolia, 4,700 Kcal/kg NAR washed slack coal (S 0.8%) fell 10 yuan/t to 319 yuan/t, ex-washplant with VAT.

Looking ahead, some participants carry an optimistic post-holiday outlook. A leading Chinese miner will raise third-party coal buy prices by 9-10 yuan/t starting 6:00 pm (GMT+8) on February 13, a move widely interpreted as a signal of confidence in post-holiday fundamentals.

Many producers remain cautious, awaiting a significant rebound in demand following the holidays.

On February 13, Sxcoal assessed Datong 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal and Yulin 5,800 Kcal/kg NAR grade at 572 yuan/t and 598 yuan/t, mine-mouth with VAT, both unchanged on the day. Ordos 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR material was also stable at 523 yuan/t.