China's northern port thermal coal market showed early signs of stabilization on September 16. Increased inquiries and pre-holiday replenishment by some buyers, combined with rebounding mine-mouth prices and high replacement costs, limited sellers' willingness to lower offers.

Spot trading at northern ports remained slow, but downward momentum eased compared to recent sessions. More buyers were heard making inquiries, and some traders actively sought cargoes as coal producers in mining regions raised prices or stopped cutting offers.

A miner was offering Inner Mongolia 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal with 0.6% sulfur at 895 yuan/t, FOB northern ports with VAT, while a trader said he was targeting purchases below 880 yuan/t for 0.6%-sulfur supplies, suggesting buyers remained price-sensitive despite the improvement in inquiries.

One utility on September 16 awarded a 0.8%-sulfur cargo at 943 yuan/t, delivered basis with VAT, netting back to roughly 880 yuan/t FOB northern ports. That compared to offers heard at roughly 885 yuan/t.

A cargo of 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal with 0.6% sulfur was reportedly traded at 807 yuan/t, yet the seller lifted the subsequent offers to around 810 yuan/t.

Sources said that inquiries have increased around midday. Buyers from eastern and southern China emerged for available cargoes ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, providing support to the market sentimentally.

The stabilization was also supported by a moderate rebound in the mine side. Some mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have started raising offers after the recent decline, keeping shipment costs elevated and leaving low-price selling interest largely diminished.

Continued scrutiny over mine safety, particularly crackdowns on overproduction, has dampened expectations for a rapid recovery in national coal supply. This leaves prices highly vulnerable to upward pressure once demand revives.

Offers for 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal with 0.8% sulfur along the Yangtze River were also relatively stable at around 925-935 yuan/t, CFR with VAT, while power plants along the Yangtze River were heard to be accepting cargoes at about 910-920 yuan/t.

Despite improved buying interest, concluded deals have not yet increased significantly. End users remain cautious in actual procurement, with some power plants still consuming relatively low volumes of coal and limited urgency to restock.

Power-sector consumption continued to move lower due to seasonal shift. Coal consumption at power plants under China's six major coastal power groups fell to 0.82 million tonnes on September 15, down 3.91% week on week, 11.41% month on month, and well below the level seen in the same period in both 2025 and 2024.

Their inventories, however, slightly accumulated and exceeded the year-ago levels, leaving them with little immediate need to chase high-priced spot coal, particularly as they continue to rely heavily on term-contract supplies.

Large-scale winter stockpiling has yet to begin, with procurement mainly focused on immediate requirements and utility tenders showing a strong preference for lower prices. This is likely to keep demand from providing a sustained boost replenishment turns into more substantial restocking. Prices, therefore, are likely to move sideways or edge slightly higher in the near term.

On September 16, Sxcoal's CCI index for domestic 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal at Qinhuangdao port fell 1 yuan/t day on day to 980 yuan/t. The index for 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal dipped 1 yuan/t to 884 yuan/t, while the index for 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was flat at 798 yuan/t.

Firm import market

The improvement in sentiment was also reflected in the import market. Some sources reported increased inquiries from both power and non-power buyers, while utility tendering activities have also improved.

Prices for prompt cargoes continued to face pressure because traders holding nearby cargoes were under greater pressure to sell, but the pace of decline slowed following domestic price stabilization. Overseas forward cargo offers remained largely firm amid constrained Indonesian supply, caused by limited RKAB quota additions and drought, and steady demand from other Asian buyers.

For Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal, late September to early October-delivering Panamax cargoes were heard offered at around $77-78/t FOB, with utility indicative buying interests closer to $75/t. Offers for forward cargoes were mostly held with premiums to the index.

Chinese utilities' buy prices for Panamax Indonesian 3,400 Kcal/kg NAR coal hovered at $65/t FOB or so, while Indian buyers were accepting $70/t.

For high-CV Australian coal, offers of 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal for October delivery were heard at about $128/t, CFR South China, which sources said still enjoyed some advantage against China's domestic equivalents.

On September 16, the CCI index for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal stood unchanged at $76.5/t FOB and $88.5/t CFR South China port. The index for Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was also flat at $129/t CFR.

Importers said Chinese end users were still unwilling to accept high prices because of weakness in domestic coal demand and pressure on power-plant margins, but elevated landed costs and limited overseas availability meant that aggressively low bids were unlikely to remain workable for long. Prices are biased stable or slightly upward in the near term.

China Huaneng's latest tender floated on September 15 was seeking 12 seaborne cargoes totaling 786,000 tonnes, with deliveries mainly scheduled for October. Market participants are closely watching its result, which may serve as an indicator to assess the near-term development.