China's northern port thermal coal market stayed broadly stable mid-week, with offers supported by elevated mine-mouth prices, while deals primarily occurred among traders and settlements below index levels.

Mine-side sentiment eased slightly from earlier highs, but sustained strict safety checks still curbed coal production and kept mine-mouth offers hovering at high levels. This rigid cost structure has left port traders reluctant to sell at lower prices.

Conversely, downstream procurement remained highly cautious. Power plants have yet to experience peak summer coal consumption, while the onset of rainfalls in some parts of China slightly eased coal burns. Additionally, a massive overhang of prompt seaborne import cargoes with reduced prices suppressed the appetite to seek domestic supply.

Port logistical bottlenecks also added to the trade stalemate. One portside trader reported that buyers were hesitant to lock in shipments ahead of the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival holiday, citing a "vessel-waiting-for-cargo" dilemma due to limited storage space to receive ordered cargoes from production areas.

One trade source offered 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal (1% sulfur) at a 3 yuan/t discount to the CCI 5000 index, while a separate offer for the same-CV coal with 0.8% sulfur was reported at parity to the index.

A trade source heard a deal fetched at 690 yuan/t for 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal delivered to designated area at ports, while their own offer of 695 yuan/t went unsold.

Price momentum appeared limited overall. Port-side supply and demand remained roughly balanced, though tightening mine-side supply continued to provide underlying support. Sources noted that a few high-sulfur or higher-priced cargoes have already shown signs of downward revisions. Without an imminent surge in downstream demand, port prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term.

This is further underscored by swelling port inventories. Combined coal stocks at Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, Jingtang, and Huanghua ports stood at 28.34 million tonnes as of June 16, marginally retreating from the week-ago levels yet still a relatively high level historically for this period.

On June 17, the CCI Index for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal stood at 865 yuan/t FOB with VAT, flat for nine consecutive trading days; the index for 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal was unchanged at 774 yuan/t for 10 sessions, and 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was also steady at 675 yuan/t for the 11th trading day.

Import market mixed

The seaborne import market exhibited a continued split between prompt and forward supplies, with the former softening while the latter temporarily held firm.

Sources said that utilities in southern China have largely completed near-term purchasing, and congestion at transfer ports in the region remained severe, forcing distressed sellers to slash prices to clear port backlogs.

Some coastal traders reported being inundated with prompt low-CV offers, with more than ten vessels of 3,400-3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal aggressively pushed mid-week. High stockpiles at power plants in Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Fujian, along with strong hydropower output and weak thermal power demand, further exacerbated selling difficulties.

More bidding prices to utility tenders for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal slid below 590 yuan/t CFR South China with VAT, making some cargoes in a price advantage of roughly 50 yuan/t against domestic equivalent.

Forward offers, by contrast, stayed resilient, with overseas sellers facing limited pressure to discount for now. But with spot prices weakening and buyer appetite subdued, overall import trading remained thin, and traders saw little near-term momentum for a price recovery.

Looking further ahead, sources noted that Indonesian miners are awaiting RKAB quota approvals for the second half. However, it remains unclear whether these higher quotas will translate into increased exports, given the risk that Indonesia's Domestic Market Obligation requirements could rise in tandem or be subject to additional conditions.

On June 17, the CCI index for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal was at $67/t FOB and $79.5/t CFR, unchanged day on day. The index for Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was also steady at $125/t CFR.