China's domestic thermal coal market at northern transfer ports lacked momentum to sustain earlier rallies, as buyers showed little appetite for replenishment beyond immediate needs, while some traders were planning to liquidate stocks n growing concerns over a December price correction.

Market sources noted that some sellers remained unwilling to make broad price concessions, with some taking an optimistic view that forecast snowfall across northern China and typical year-end safety-driven production curbs could disrupt supply and logistics, providing price support.

However, sporadic low-priced offers have emerged as some traders look to trim positions ahead of December, a month that has historically seen softer prices.

Buyers, meanwhile, continued to take a cautious approach. One eastern China-based source disclosed that demand was limited, with occasional purchases driven largely by unusual quality requirements or the need to cover small shortfalls rather than regular procurement. Trading activity, therefore, stayed lukewarm.

Several sources said the market was not short of offers, but actual demand remained patchy and insufficient to support another broad round of price increases.

The market continued to see differentiated resilience across coal grades. High-CV material was relatively better supported, while mid- and low-CV grades have shown mixed performance.

Some high-sulfur 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR Shanxi coal was heard offered at 1,020 yuan/t, while low-sulfur Shaanxi coal was quoted as high as 1,060 yuan/t, both FOB northern ports with VAT. Despite firm offers, sources said transactions became harder as buyers largely shifted to the sidelines.

A deal was heard done for 1%-sulfur 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR Shanxi coal at parity to the CCI 5000 index, against offers at roughly a 2 yuan/t premium. Certain low-sulfur same-origin coal was heard offered at a 6 yuan/t premium. However, sources said settlement prices for other-origin coal slid noticeably, with some high-sulfur resources sold to a leading mining group at 8-13 yuan/t discounts to the index.

The 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR segment saw stronger selling pressure, as ample cargo availability met with fewer buyers. Market participants said this grade was often offered at or below index levels, with some sellers struggling to secure transactions.

As transactions stalled, port inventory movement has gained more attention recently. One participant said recent vessel-loading and dispatch performance had been discouraging, while stocks had increased after weather-related restrictions on navigation disrupted shipments from northern ports.

Sxcoal's data showed that coal stocks at Qinhuangdao, Caofeidian, Jingtang, and Huanghua ports climbed to 26.3 million tonnes as of November 11, up by 3.5% and 9.7% respectively from the week and the month prior. Outflows at these ports fell by over 5% from the preceding week.

Market participants therefore remained focused on how soon shipments can recover and whether winter demand would translate into a pent-up increase in offtake. They expected prices to be largely range-bound with upward momentum gradually fading while a downward correction has yet to mature.

On November 11, Sxcoal's CCI index for domestic 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal traded at northern ports stood at 1,025 yuan/t FOB with VAT, rebounding 1 yuan/t day on day. The index for 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal gained 1 yuan/t to 919 yuan/t, while 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal stayed unchanged at 805 yuan/t.

Caution builds in import market

In the seaborne import market, catuious sentiment accumulated, with fewer utility tenders and weaker buying interest limiting further gains.

Importers hesitated to take new positions as power plants grew increasingly reluctant to accept high offers. The market appeares to lack upward catalysts, and prices have begun to soften.

Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal was offered at around $80-82/t FOB, with some market participants indicating that sellers might be willing to negotiate near $80.5-81/t for December-loading cargoes.

Freight for Panamax shipments from Indonesia to southern China was heard at $9-10.5/t. The economics of low-CV imports remained thin after shifting from a marginal loss of 0.31 yuan/t last week to a modest advantage of 7 yuan/t on November 10, according to Sxcoal's estimate.

High-CV Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was offered at $116-117/t FOB on a Panamax basis, with the freight rate sliding marginally to $20-21/t.

The decline in freight rates, alongside a recent pullback in crude oil prices, slightly reduced delivered import costs. This had yet to translate into stronger buying interest. Delivered prices for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal in southern China were estimated at around 1,030-1,050 yuan/t, while utilities remained reluctant to accept expensive cargoes.

Import coal prices are anticipated to move sideways, with both downward and upward room limited, sources reckoned.

On November 11, the CCI index for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal stayed flat day on day to $79.0/t FOB and $91.5/t CFR South China port. The index for Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was also stable at $137.0/t CFR.