China's seaborne import thermal coal market remained under downward pressure on July 8, as typhoon activities suppressed power demand across southern and eastern coastal regions while high power plant inventories and ample long-term contracted coal supplies limited fresh buying interest.

Bids to utility tenders for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal with August delivery dropped further to as low as 539 yuan/t, CFR South China with VAT, translating to roughly $61/t FOB on a Panamax basis. That compared to relatively resilient overseas offers at $64-65/t FOB and current delivered costs of 560 yuan/t or so.

Typhoon Maysak has brought heavy rainfall in parts of southern China, capping local power plant coal consumption at low levels. Meanwhile, super typhoon Bavi is predicted to land on the eastern coast of China between July 11 night and July 12 morning, according to China's National Meteorological Center. It is forecast to bring heavy to torrential rainfall in parts of East China, North China, and Northeast China for several days, 

A separate forecast from the National Climate Center showed that four to six typhoons are expected to form in the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea in July, with two to three likely to make landfall or affect China's coastal areas, higher than the average of 1.8 during the same month in previous years.

"The frequent typhoon activities will likely delay near-term demand by roughly a week, even as utility coal burns have shown signs of rebounding elsewhere outside South China," said a trader source in eastern China.

Some participants flagged continued headwinds from high southern port stocks and relatively sufficient power plant inventories, which, paired with still high unsold prompt cargoes and expected new arrivals, would still pose downside risks to seaborne coal prices.

Sxcoal's data showed that coal stocks at Guangzhou port stood at 3.30 million tonnes on July 7, up 8% from the year-ago level. Coal stocks held by power plants under six major coastal Chinese power groups stood at 14.77 million tonnes on the same day, up 2.93% year on year and hovering at a relatively high level for the same period in history.

"Severe discharge delays at southern ports are still likely to force some traders to absorb losses on prompt cargoes to clear space for incoming vessels," said a southeastern China-based trader source.

For the high-CV segment, one utility reportedly took Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal at 824 yuan/t, CFR with VAT South China, netting back to around $90/t FOB. Offers from overseas miners for the same grade were heard at $94/t FOB or so, with the Panamax freight rate to South China rebounding to about $18/t.

Russian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was heard offered at about 820 yuan/t CFR, though liquidity remained thin and appetite limited, sources said.

On July 8, the CCI index for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal was at $63/t FOB and $73/t CFR, sliding $0.3/t day on day. The index for Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was down $0.5/t to $109.5/t CFR.

Cautious domestic market resistance

At China's northern ports, a more nuanced picture emerged as some participants reported an uptick in inquiries for lower-CV domestic material, though actual transactions remained scarce.

The market showed signs of tentative stabilization for 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal, with some 1%-sulfur cargoes relatively resilient at 625 yuan/t or so for delivery to designated port areas. Buying indications, however, were heard still low at around 615 yuan/t, sources said.

Cargoes of 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal at northern ports were quoted at 715-720 yuan/t, FOB with VAT, with selective acceptance near 710-715 yuan/t. One trader refused to sell a 0.8%-sulfur same-CV cargo at a 5 yuan/t discount to the CCI 5000 index, indicating underpriced supplies remained hard to secure even in the weak market.

High-CV 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal faced more downside risk, with high-sulfur grade potentially testing the key psychological level of 800 yuan/t.

Some trader sources pointed to reduced rail coal inflows at ports and a shift to a downtrend of port inventories as potential stabilizing factors, yet the absence of a meaningful increase in utility demand still left most traders skeptical of any imminent price rebound. Most participants remained in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer signals on temperatures, typhoon impacts, and demand trends.

On July 8, the CCI Index for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal stood at 803 yuan/t FOB with VAT, down 5 yuan/t day on day; the index for 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR and 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal dropped 5 yuan/t and 2 yuan/t, respectively, to 710 yuan/t and 615 yuan/t.