China's coal imports reached a historical high level in December 2025, far surpassing earlier market expectations. This was driven by a confluence of phased domestic production constraints, international supply dynamics, price advantages of seaborne cargoes, and strategic winter restocking.

The country imported 58.6 million tonnes of coal in December, up 11.94% year on year and 33.01% compared to November, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs.

This volume exceeded the previous record of 54.98 million tonnes set in November 2024 and reversed a declining year-on-year trend observed since March last year, with a double-digit growth rate.

Several factors appear to have driven this unexpected year-end spike. As the year drew to a close, some domestic mines halted production after meeting annual targets or scaled back operations due to strict safety and environmental inspections. This temporarily tightened domestic supply, enhancing the appeal of imported coal among downstream users.

Simultaneously, international suppliers accelerated shipments at the end of 2025. Indonesia's government announced plans in late November to impose a coal export levy from January 2026. As the discussion on export duty policies has become clearer since December, some miners have expedited deliveries before the levy takes effect.

In Russia, freight rail tariffs were raised by approximately 10% starting December 1, prompting producers to frontload shipments in November to lock in lower costs.

Global seaborne thermal coal prices remained relatively subdued throughout 2025. Despite a slight rebound late in the year, seaborne coal prices stood lower than those seen in the first half of 2025, offering Chinese buyers a clear cost advantage. In contrast, domestic coal prices had peaked in nearly a year in late November, prompting buyers to pivot toward cheaper imports.

Though domestic prices began to fall in December, narrowing the price edge, the sustained advantage spurred buying interest among price-sensitive coastal power plants and steel mills.

The bulk of coal cleared customs in December was ordered in the latter half of October and after, a period marked by expectations of a cold winter. This prompted end users to stockpile in anticipation of peak seasonal demand. Entering December, despite still milder-than-expected temperatures, the month still represented a critical phase for China's annual heating season supply guarantee.

With year-end sales and profit targets looming, some traders also rushed to execute contracts in December.

Moreover, policy shifts may have played a role. The first half of 2025 saw strict import controls, which delayed customs clearance and unloading of several pre-contracted or already-arrived shipments. As regulatory conditions normalized in the second half year, a backlog of previously stalled coal imports was processed and added to the month's imports.

Looking ahead to 2026, industry analysts broadly expect total volume contraction and structural optimization in coal imports amidst ample domestic supply and evolving demand patterns. For January, import volumes are projected to fall below the year-ago level, as the anticipated cold winter has failed to materialize and domestic utility inventories remain high.