The ongoing Middle East conflict is jolting Asia's energy markets, pushing several governments back toward coal as oil and gas movements have been disrupted worldwide. But this also raises concerns about air pollution and longer-term climate goals.

Asia is particularly exposed because many countries rely heavily on imported fuel, much of it transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that handles roughly a fifth of global oil and natural gas trade.

LNG, natural gas cooled into liquid form for easier shipping and storage, has been marketed as a "bridge fuel" from oil and coal toward cleaner energy. The U.S. has sought to expand LNG exports across Asia. While LNG typically burns cleaner than coal, it still contributes to climate change, notably through methane emissions.

With LNG supplies tighter, countries are leaning on coal to keep power systems stable. India is burning more coal to meet higher summer electricity demand. South Korea has lifted caps limiting coal-fired generation. Indonesia is prioritizing its domestic coal needs. Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam are also raising coal-fired output.

Energy analysts describe coal as a short-term fix and renewables as the durable solution, warning that a renewed dependence on coal can lock in higher emissions and greater vulnerability to future shocks.

Coal is vital in Asia's emergency energy playbook because it is widely available across the region and can be ramped up when renewables or gas fall short, local media reported, citing Sandeep Pai, an energy expert at Duke University.

China, the world's biggest coal consumer and producer, has added record coal-fired generation capacity since 2021 as part of a drive to strengthen energy security. National policy still calls for continued coal use, though China's vast buildout of clean energy is providing some relief.

India, the second-largest coal consumer and producer, is preparing for a scorching summer and expects peak demand to reach 270 GW, nearly twice Spain's total generating capacity. The country has about three months of coal available, with parts of the stockpiles reserved for small businesses.

Two Indian liquefied petroleum gas shipments totaling more than 92,700 tonnes recently transited the Strait of Hormuz, but Pai said such imports would likely be steered toward industrial uses such as fertilizer production rather than electricity generation.

Michelle Manook of FutureCoal, arguing the energy shortfall would be sharper without coal, and that future use should be strategic in India.

Adding to the strain for import-dependent countries, Indonesia, the world's largest coal exporter, is prioritizing domestic supply over exports, a shift that could tighten regional availability and lift global prices, said Putra Adhiguna of the Energy Shift Institute.

Since the conflict began, prices for Australian Newcastle high-CV thermal coal, used widely across Asia, have risen by 12%. That increase could weigh on Southeast Asia, the world's third-largest coal-consuming region, as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Thailand expand coal generation.

Vietnam is already confronting that volatility. After boosting imports to cover weather-related shortages, it faces uncertainty over Indonesian supply and is considering additional coal from the U.S. and Laos.

Analysts warned the rush back to coal could slow or even undermine plans to retire coal-fired power. In Indonesia, efforts to phase out coal plants early were already struggling, with financing delays even before the war.

Coal power in Indonesia was 48% more expensive in 2024 than in 2020 because of ageing plants and rising costs, according to the U.S.-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). Subsidies to the national utility rose 24% to $11 billion, about 5% of the national budget.

Jakarta has promoted LNG to help ease a transition away from coal, but the renewed coal burn sends a signal that switching to gas is not as easy as it sounds.

South Korea has pledged to retire most coal plants by 2040 and cut emissions by half by 2035. Yet it is allowing additional coal generation when air pollution is low and LNG supply is tight.

Meeting South Korea's net-zero trajectory would require a major expansion in renewables, around 8 GW of new wind each year, an energy think tank estimated. Yet renewables supplied only 10% of electricity in 2024, versus a global average of 32%, IEEFA said.

Over the past 11 years, South Korea has committed $127 billion to fossil fuels, about 13 times what it spent on renewables, with 60% of export finance going to LNG and $120.1 billion spent on fuel imports in 2024 alone, said Joojin Kim of Solutions for Our Climate.

South Korea still intends to phase out coal, but Kim warned the latest policy shifts could last beyond the immediate crisis.

In Thailand, where coal is a relatively small part of the power system, the effect on electricity prices would likely be limited. Domestic coal accounts for less than 10% of Thailand's energy mix.

A renewed coal burn also raises the risk of worsening smog in major cities. Coal combustion produces fine particulate pollution that can penetrate deep into the lungs and bloodstream, increasing the risk of various illnesses, said the World Health Organization.

Vietnam is also grappling with severe pollution, with PM2.5 levels far above WHO guidelines, even as it promotes electric bikes and sets targets to reduce coal use.