Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports climbed to an all-time monthly high in December 2025, outpacing the previous record seen in December 2023, according to Kpler. Still, the record-setting month belied a broader annual decline, with total imports last year falling nearly 5% compared to the previous year.

Asian nations imported a total 83.91 million tonnes of seaborne thermal coal in December, up 5.44% year on year (YoY) and 8.66% month on month (MoM), showed vessel-tracking data from Kpler. Cumulative imports amounted to 894 million tonnes in 2025, down 4.75% YoY.

China, the world's largest coal importer, posted its fourth consecutive month of rising imports in December. The country imported 37.88 million tonnes of seaborne thermal coal, rising 12.48% YoY and 17.98% MoM, marking the highest level in history. The full-year tally stood at 325 million tonnes, down 11.51% YoY, narrowing by 2.4 percentage points compared to the first eleven months.

The December growth was driven by winter stockpiling by power utilities and traders, widening price advantages for seaborne coal, and cold winter demand expectations. However, unseasonably warm temperatures in southern China tempered power demand, potentially capping coal-fired generation growth. As a result, demand for imported seaborne coal may recede in January.

Kpler did not forecast a further decline in China's coal imports for 2026. Rising electricity consumption from data centers, IT infrastructure, and services is expected to offset structural slowdowns in manufacturing. Slower-than-anticipated growth in renewable energy capacity could also keep coal in the power mix.

Due to rising domestic production, India's thermal coal imports fell 5.81% YoY and 10.58% MoM to 10.87 million tonnes in December, the lowest monthly figure since early 2023. For 2025, India imported 160 million tonnes, down 2.39% YoY.

As the Indian government relaxed export restrictions amid elevated stockpiles and higher domestic output, state-owned Coal India Limited (CIL) opened e-auctions to neighboring countries since the beginning of January.

With the domestic market inching toward oversupply, Kpler expects subdued import levels in India to persist into January. Even so, India's cement sector, seeing increasing production and switching from petroleum coke to coal, may offer some relief to the shrinking import demand.

Japan's seaborne thermal coal imports in December rose 16.4% MoM to 9.8 million tonnes, but were still down 8.11% YoY due to sluggish power demand. For 2025, total imports fell 4.93% YoY to 103 million tonnes.

Kpler noted that intermittent power demand gains during colder periods and unexpected nuclear outages could spur increases in coal consumption for the remainder of this winter. Meanwhile, Japan's ongoing pivot away from Russian coal would support prices of Australian high-CV coal.

South Korea continued to lean into coal as a cost-effective alternative to natural gas. Benefiting from mild winter conditions across Northeast Asia, concerns over air quality eased, allowing for higher coal plant utilization.

December thermal coal imports climbed 16.56% YoY and 2.71% MoM to 7.27 million tonnes. Annual imports rose 4.55% to 77.03 million tonnes.

Southeast Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports reached an all-time high of 148 million tonnes in 2025, a 2.78% increase over 2024, Kpler's data showed, driven by record inflows into Vietnam and Malaysia. December accounted for 11.82 million tonnes, up 6.33% YoY and 8.79% MoM.

Vietnam's thermal coal imports rose 5.43% YoY to 46.52 million tonnes in 2025, while Malaysia brought in 35.55 million tonnes, up 3.3% YoY.

Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the Philippines imported 36.43 million tonnes, down 3.09% YoY. This marks its first yearly decline in five years as LNG and renewables increasingly displaced coal in the energy mix, which is expected to persist into 2026.

Seaborne thermal coal supplies continued to vary among major exporters. Indonesia's government announced plans to cap 2026 coal production below 700 million tonnes, a notable cut from 2025 targets, aiming to balance global markets and sidestep a price war with Russia over China-bound exports.

While December export volumes remained robust, looming constraints foreshadow a tighter Indonesian supply.

Delays in approvals of mining work plans and budget (RKAB), logistical disruptions in South Sumatra, and new foreign exchange rules that require exporters to retain proceeds in domestic or state-owned banks for at least a year are all compounding uncertainty. While the immediate impact on shipments is limited, the long-term risks to supply stability and cost structures are mounting.

Australia, another key supplier, exported 34.6 million tonnes in December, the highest in six years. Yet this spike was largely driven by accelerated year-end offtake for annual targets and is unlikely to persist. As the southern hemisphere enters its rainy season and braces for La Nina conditions, mining and port operations face seasonal headwinds, potentially curbing supplies.

Russia's exports dipped to a nine-month low in December as frigid weather hampered logistics and output in the Far East. Although 2025 exports recovered from 2024 lows, financial distress is widespread, with 74% of domestic coal companies reportedly operating at a loss.

Nevertheless, with production ramping up and new export infrastructure online, Russian supply in 2026 is expected to contract only mildly.

In terms of pricing, Australian Newcastle high-CV coal remained firm, bolstered by rigid Japanese demand for non-Russian coal and structural tightness in seaborne high-energy supply.

In contrast, Australian mid- to low-CV cargo prices were more sensitive to Chinese market sentiment. December's increase in Chinese buying provided a temporary boost, but the availability of discounted Russian coal limited upward movement.

As 2026 begins, Kpler sees a clear deceleration of market momentum. The overhang from December's surplus, coupled with a lack of bullish catalysts, suggests prices may remain rangebound, diverging among coal grades dependent on quality and buyer-specific dynamics and awaiting their next jolt from either demand or policy.