APBI-ICMA

US inflation ticked higher in October, led by monthly gains in shelter, a reminder that the last lap in the Federal Reserve's marathon to bring inflation to its long-term target remains a challenge.

The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to an annual 2.6pc in October, in line with analysts' forecasts in a survey by Trading Economics, from 2.4pc in September, which was the lowest since February 2021, the Labor Department reported today. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 3.3pc rate, unchanged on the month.

The energy index contracted by 4.9pc over the 12 months, slowing from a decline of 6.8pc through September. The gasoline index fell by 12.2pc, slowing from a 15.3pc decrease the prior month. The fuel oil index fell by 20.8pc.

Federal Reserve policymakers last week cut the target rate by a quarter point, following a half-point cut in September that kicked off an easing cycle from then-23-year highs. Inflation has slowed to near the Fed's 2pc target from highs above 9pc in mid-2022 that proved to be a major impetus behind president-elect Donald Trump's victory at the ballot box on 5 November.

The CME's FedWatch tool today gives near-80pc odds of another quarter-point cut in December.

"The economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower" in adjusting rates lower, Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters last week after the Fed decision.

The food index rose by an annual 2.1pc, slowing from a 2.3pc gain through September. Shelter rose by an annual 4.9pc, unchanged. Transportation services rose by 8.2pc. New vehicles fell by 1.3pc while used vehicle prices fell by 3.4pc. Services less energy services, viewed as core services, rose by 4.8pc.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2pc in October, a fourth month of such gains after falling by 0.1pc in June. Core inflation rose by 0.3pc for a third month.

Shelter accelerated to a 0.4pc monthly gain, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase, after a 0.2pc gain.

Energy was unchanged in October after falling by 1.9pc in September from the prior month. Food rose by 0.2pc on the month, following a 0.4pc gain.

By Bob Willis

Sumber: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2628200-us-inflation-rises-in-october-to-2.6pc

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Japan’s Chugoku Restarts Shimane Nuclear Reactor Early

Japanese utility Chugoku Electric Power restarted the 820MW Shimane No.2 nuclear reactor for test operations on 23 December, two days earlier than originally planned.

The No.2 reactor at Shimane in west Japan's Shimane prefecture was reconnected to the country's power grids for the first time in nearly 13 years, after the reactor shut down in January 2012 for stricter safety inspections following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown disaster.

Chugoku reactivated the Shimane No.2 reactor on 7 December, aiming to resume power generation on 25 December. But the target date for commercial operations remained unchanged on 10 January, despite the earlier than expected restart.

The Shimane No.2 reactor will be a vital power source as the sole nuclear fleet in the Chugoku area, to help enhance the resilience of the power supply structure, stabilise retail electricity prices and reduce CO2 emissions, said Japan Atomic Industrial Forum's president Hideki Masui on 23 December.

The Shimane No.2 reactor is the second boiling water reactor (BWR) to be restarted after the Fukushima disaster, following the 825MW Onagawa No.2 BWR unit that resumed test generation on 15 November, with normal operations scheduled to restart on 26 December.

The BWR is the same type as that involved in the meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. The restart of the two BWRs would pave the way for Japan's nuclear restoration, as 15 BWRs — including advanced BWRs — are still closed in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Japan has restored 14 reactors as of 23 December, including the Shimane and Onagaw reactors, of which 12 are installed with a pressurised water reactor (PWR) design.

Nuclear power's share

The Japanese government last week set a target of 20pc for nuclear power's share in the country's draft power mix for the April 2040-March 2041 fiscal year, under the triennial review for the country's Strategic Energy Plan (SEP). Tokyo is seeking to restart all existing reactors to achieve the 20pc goal, adding that replacement reactors would also be possible.

The draft SEP allows nuclear power operators that had decommissioned reactors to build next-generation reactors at their nuclear sites, not limited to the same site. The previous SEP did not mention building new reactors or replacements. Japan's Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC) has applauded this progress, but FEPC chairman Kingo Hayashi noted that it was disappointing the SEP did not mention a nuclear capacity target which the FEPC had requested. It also did not include building new reactors or the expansion of existing nuclear plants, Hayashi added.

By Motoko Hasegawa

Ini Beragam Beban Di Industri Pertambangan Batubara

KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Industri pertambangan batubara harus menghadapi sejumlah pemberat di tahun ini. Mulai dari revisi kebijakan devisa hasil ekspor (DHE), pajak pertambahan nilai (PPN) 12, hingga harga batubara.

Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM), Bahlil Lahadalia mengungkapkan, fluktuasi nilai tukar ini memberikan dampak signifikan pada sektor pertambangan, termasuk industri batubara.

Industri pertambangan ikut terdampak, khususnya akibat kebutuhan impor peralatan seperti suku cadang. “Tugas kita sekarang adalah bagaimana mengurangi impor agar kebutuhan terhadap dolar tidak terlalu besar,” kata Bahlil di Jakarta, pekan lalu.

Selain pelemahan rupiah, industri pertambangan batubara juga harus menghadapi ujian lain. Pemerintah saat ini tengah menyiapkan revisi kebijakan DHE yang rencananya berlaku mulai Januari 2025.

Dalam revisi aturan DHE, wacana berkembang bahwa eksportir akan diwajibkan menempatkan minimal 50% DHE hasil sumber daya alam (SDA) ke sistem keuangan domestik, naik dari ketentuan sebelumnya sebesar 30%. Durasi penempatan juga diperpanjang dari tiga bulan menjadi enam bulan.

Plt Direktur Eksekutif Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia (APBI) Gita Mahyarani menyampaikan, pengusaha pada dasarnya akan mengikuti aturan. Namun, ia menyoroti potensi tekanan terhadap likuiditas perusahaan tambang, terutama perusahaan kecil dan menengah.

“Likuiditas perusahaan tambang berpotensi tertekan dengan penempatan dana dalam jumlah besar dan waktu yang lebih lama. Ini dapat mengurangi kemampuan investasi baru pada barang modal yang sangat penting untuk menunjang kinerja dan kontribusi ekonomi,” ujar Gita, Minggu (22/12).

Gita juga mengimbau pemerintah untuk mengkaji lebih dalam dampak aturan ini terhadap perusahaan tambang berskala menengah ke bawah.

Tekanan kebijakan devisa terjadi di tengah harga komoditas yang cenderung melemah. Direktur Eksekutif Pusat Studi Hukum Energi Pertambangan (Pushep), Bisman Bachtiar menilai kombinasi kebijakan dan kondisi pasar menciptakan tantangan signifikan bagi pengusaha batubara.

“Strategi jangka pendek yang dapat dilakukan adalah menekan biaya operasional dan berkomunikasi dengan pemerintah untuk kebijakan yang lebih mendukung. Dalam jangka panjang, diversifikasi usaha menjadi langkah strategis untuk mengurangi ketergantungan pada komoditas tunggal,” jelas Bisman kepada Kontan, Senin (23/12).

Industri batubara saat ini dihadapkan pada dilema besar. Di satu sisi, mereka dituntut mematuhi kebijakan devisa untuk memperkuat perekonomian domestik.

Di sisi lain, tekanan eksternal seperti harga komoditas rendah dan kebutuhan impor tetap menjadi tantangan.

Indonesia To Build 20 Nuclear Power Plants With First Project By ThorCon

In its push for net-zero emissions by 2050, the Indonesian government has announced plans to construct at least 20 nuclear power plants, with the first project expected to be awarded to US nuclear developer ThorCon. The plant will be located on Kelasa Island in Bangka Belitung province and is slated to deliver a prototype reactor by 2028.

Indonesia pushes for low-carbon nuclear energy

Given the limited potential for renewable energy in Indonesia's base-load capacity, nuclear energy is seen as a viable solution to meet the country's substantial low-carbon energy demand. ThorCon's nuclear facility will utilize a Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR), expected to provide 500 MW of low-carbon electricity.

Bob Effendi, Chief Operating Officer of ThorCon’s Indonesian subsidiary, mentioned that West Kalimantan is also a potential site for the plant. However, Bangka Belitung was chosen due to its rich tin resources, as thorium is a byproduct of the tin production process.

" For the electronics industry, rare earth elements are not new, but [their potential] has yet to be realized for the economy in this region," Effendi noted.

The construction of a nuclear power plant is a costly endeavor, with ThorCon estimating a total investment of $1.06 billion for the new facility. The prototype reactor will be built by South Korea and delivered by sea to Indonesia.

Clear nuclear power demand attracts countries to invest

Prior to this, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, stated in an investment coordination meeting on Dec. 12 that state-owned electricity company PLN has already partnered with American and Japanese companies to develop small modular reactors (SMRs) with a capacity of less than 300 MW in Indonesia.

In the next 15 years, Indonesia aims to increase its electricity supply by 100 GW, with renewable energy accounting for 75% and nuclear power making up 5%. Due to this clear demand, several countries, including South Korea, Russia, France, and China, have expressed interest in collaborating with Indonesia on nuclear power development.

Micro or small modular nuclear reactors hold the potential to address the issue of insufficient low-carbon energy supply. However, Dinita Setyawati, Southeast Asia electricity policy analyst at the UK energy think tank Ember, cautioned that relying solely on small nuclear reactors will not be sufficient to shift the country’s energy structure dominated by fossil fuels. Deploying wind, solar, and other renewable energy sources is still necessary to reverse the current situation.

Alberta To Introduce ‘modern’ Coal Policy, Including Ban On New Open-pit Projects

Alberta has announced plans to draft new rules that will see mountaintop removal mining and open-pit coal developments prohibited on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains.

In a statement on Friday afternoon, Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean said “the time has come” to address issues in Alberta’s current coal policy and implement a modern approach that balances “responsible resource development with strong environmental protections.”

“Our job now is to develop a policy that respects the natural spaces in the foothills and protects water while allowing for responsible coal development that can attract investment and create jobs,” he added.
The aim of the new Alberta Coal Industry Modernization Initiative (CIMI), to be drafted for government approval later in 2025, is to protect Alberta’s waters from mining contaminants such as selenium, while setting the standards for future coal mining in the world.

The CIMI will be based on the intent of the 1976 Coal Development Policy, picking up on the work done by the 2021 Coal Policy Committee, including addressing the committee’s recommendations.

The CIMI will “build a long-term legislative and regulatory framework focused on environmental protections while allowing coal development under some of the most stringent protections in the world,” Alberta’s energy ministry stated.

It stressed that the new regulations will “do away with temporary fixes and half measures and provide a foundation for responsible coal mining for the 21st Century. Rebecca Schulz, Minister of Environment and Protected Areas, said: “Alberta has one of the best environmental management systems in the world. We have strong and effective monitoring and regulatory protections in place to protect our air, water and lands and these safeguards will only get stronger through this initiative.”

To ensure fair compensation for the development of the the province’s abundant coal resource, the Alberta government said it will also raise the royalty rates on new coal mines significantly under the new initiative.
Alberta’s energy regulator is expected to begin the engagement process with the coal industry in early 2025 of the province’s plans for higher mining standards as well as the new royalty amounts.

NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi, however, criticized the CIMI, calling the announcement “a giant lump of coal just before Christmas.” “They released a plan to increase coal mining in Alberta, and to do so in a way that has very little economic benefit and very significant environmental risk,” Nenshi told reporters on Friday.

The new policy will not affect those qualified as “advanced coal projects” such as the controversial Grassy Mountain mine near the Crowsnest Pass, which has been challenged by environmental and community groups.
A spokesperson for Northback Holdings, the company spearheading the Grassy Mountain project, wrote to the CBC that it looks forward to working with the province as it moves forward on the policy updates.

Rencana Aturan Baru DHE SDA Bisa Tekan Industri Pertambangan

KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. Pemerintah sedang menyusun revisi aturan terkait devisa hasil ekspor (DHE) dari sumber daya alam (SDA), yang diperkirakan akan berlaku mulai Januari 2025. Belakangan ramai desas-desus bahwa revisi ini mencakup kewajiban eksportir untuk menempatkan lebih banyak DHE SDA di sistem keuangan domestik, dari sebelumnya minimal 30% menjadi 50%, dengan durasi penempatan yang lebih panjang, yakni dari tiga bulan menjadi enam bulan.

Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Airlangga Hartarto mengungkapkan, aturan ini bertujuan untuk memperkuat sektor perbankan domestik dan cadangan devisa negara, sekaligus menstabilkan perekonomian.

Namun, sejumlah pihak di industri pertambangan menilai kebijakan ini bisa memberikan tekanan tambahan terhadap likuiditas perusahaan tambang, terutama di tengah harga komoditas yang saat ini sedang melemah dan meningkatnya biaya operasional.

“Likuiditas perusahaan tambang berpotensi tertekan dengan penempatan dana dalam jumlah besar dan waktu yang lebih lama,” kata Gita kepada Kontan, Minggu (22/12).

Plt Direktur Eksekutif Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia (APBI) Gita Mahyarani mengatakan, pengusaha tambang pada dasarnya akan mematuhi aturan yang berlaku, tetapi pemerintah diharapkan mempertimbangkan dampaknya terhadap kelangsungan operasional perusahaan tambang. “Likuiditas perusahaan tambang berpotensi tertekan dengan penempatan dana dalam jumlah besar dan waktu yang lebih lama,” kata Gita kepada Kontan, Minggu (22/12).

Selain itu, Gita menyebut beban ini juga bisa mengurangi kemampuan perusahaan untuk melakukan investasi baru pada barang modal, yang sebenarnya sangat penting untuk menopang kinerja perusahaan dan kontribusi mereka terhadap ekonomi nasional. Menurut Gita, kebijakan tersebut juga berisiko memperberat beban perusahaan tambang skala menengah ke bawah, yang mungkin tidak memiliki fleksibilitas keuangan sebesar perusahaan besar.

“Pemerintah perlu mengkaji lebih dalam terkait potensi kesulitan likuiditas yang akan dihadapi perusahaan-perusahaan kecil dan menengah,” tambahnya. Ketua Badan Kejuruan Pertambangan Persatuan Insinyur Indonesia (BK Pertambangan PII) Rizal Kasli mengungkapkan, revisi aturan DHE SDA ini membawa konsekuensi besar bagi industri tambang.

US Inflation Rises In October To 2.6pc

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