Global thermal coal exports are set for their first annual decline since 2020, mostly thanks to lower demand in Asian markets.

Global thermal coal exports for the year are seen at some 945 million tons, according to data from Kpler cited by Reuters’ Gavin Maguire. That would be 50 million tons down on 2024, or a 5% decline.

The 2025 trend compares with an increase of 4.5 million tons in thermal coal exports last year, and a much more substantial annual increase of 65.2 million tons in 2023. The 2025 decline was attributable to a 7% decline in imports by the world’s top coal-importing region: Asia.

Asia as a whole took in 89% of all thermal coal exports this year, translating into 841 million tons, or 60 million tons less than the continent imported in 2024. China was the top importer, taking in 305 million tons, followed by India, which imported 157 million tons of thermal coal this year. Japan completed the top three with imports of 100 million tons, and South Korea and Vietnam came next, with imports of 76 million tons and 45 million tons, respectively.

South Korea and Vietnam were also the only two big coal importers that boosted their purchases this year, while China and India imported less than they did in 2024. For China, the decline stood at 12% or around 43 million tons. For India, the import drop was 3%, or 4.3 million tons. Recently, however, both China and India have stepped up purchases of foreign thermal coal ahead of peak winter demand for China.

In China, domestic coal production rose this year by a modest 1.5% but still an increase, despite a government push against oversupply, part of a broader clampdown on overcapacity across industries. In coal, the government campaign against overcapacity has taken the form of mine inspections to make sure they are not producing over government-issued quotas. The inspections contributed to a decline in coal production in July and August. Over the first half of the year, however, production grew, driving the annual total higher as well.