China's coal supply for the winter heating season is expected to be broadly adequate, even as output disruptions following the Shanxi mine accident in May keep the market tight, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said.

Coal inventories at grid-dispatched power plants stand at around 210 million tonnes, sufficient for 35 days of use, NEA spokesperson Wang Dapeng told a press conference on October 30, as key producing regions gradually restore output.

Domestic coal output fell sharply following the mine accident in Changzhi, Shanxi. National raw coal output was 380.88 million tonnes in June 2026, down 9.7% year on year, with the decline widening by 8 percentage points from May, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Output fell 4.11% from the previous month, reversing a 3.01% gain in May. Shanxi produced 7.80 million tonnes in June, down 31.5% year on year and 23.83% from the prior month.

The safety crackdown spread to neighboring provinces in July, deepening the output losses. National raw coal output dropped to 343.21 million tonnes in July 2026, down 10.1% year on year and 9.9% month on month. Shanxi output fell to 6.89 million tonnes, down 35.8% from a year earlier and 11.64% from June.

Production improved in August and September. National output rose 5.4% month on month to 361.82 million tonnes in August 2026, though it was still down 7.7% year on year. Shanxi produced 7.46 million tonnes in August, up 8.22% from July but down 30.9% from a year earlier.

In September 2026, national raw coal output reached 381.53 million tonnes, up 6.4% month on month and down 6.8% year on year. Shanxi output rose 5.66% from August to 7.88 million tonnes, but remained down 31.3% year on year.

Despite the recovery, cumulative output for the first nine months of 2026 fell 3.5% year on year to 3.45 billion tonnes, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points from the January-August period.

Wang said the coal market ran steadily in the first half, but the Shanxi accident in May, combined with high international energy prices, pushed coal prices up sharply for a period. The NEA and other State Council departments responded with a series of measures to boost production and supply.

The NEA recently sent a team to Shanxi to supervise the resumption of production and resolve bottlenecks, Wang said, adding that the year-on-year decline in above-scale industrial coal output narrowed by 0.9 percentage points in September.

Tan Hongjiang, deputy director of the NEA's electricity department, said the administration will strengthen monitoring and early warning to secure primary energy supply. "We will work with relevant parties to enhance coal monitoring and dispatch, urge producers to stabilize and raise output on the premise of safety, and ensure power coal inventories remain at reasonable levels before winter," Tan said. He added that power generators will be guided to secure coal procurement and transport, and that combined heat and power units in northern clean heating areas must be kept operational.

Wang said coal output has steadily recovered, coal imports have continued to increase and the supply situation is stable and improving, citing six measures taken.

These include daily monitoring of coal production, prices, transport and market operations; a joint notice by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the NEA and the National Mine Safety Administration to guide mines to optimize production and tap output potential; stronger long-term power coal contract enforcement; the release of reserved coal production capacity; on-site supervision in regions with large output declines; and incentives for increased coal imports.

Looking ahead, Wang said the NDRC recently held a video conference on national energy supply for the 2026-2027 heating season to analyze the supply-demand situation and lay out work arrangements.

The NEA will step up implementation of existing policies and roll out new measures, Wang said, including improving policies to boost output, accelerating construction of replacement capacity and planning emergency reserve capacity.

While tight supply remains the main contradiction in the coal sector, coal supply during this winter's peak demand period is expected to be broadly guaranteed as policies and measures take effect, Wang said.