Thermal coal prices across China's key mining areas moved rangebound on the first trading day after the Chinese New Year holiday. Coal production gradually recovered, while demand failed to improve meaningfully, leaving participants in a wait-and-see mode.

Of the 90 coal mines surveyed by Sxcoal on February 24, six mines raised prices by an average of 12.83 yuan/t, while one lowered prices by 8 yuan/t. The remaining 83 kept prices stable.

With the holiday ended, coal mines in northern producing regions have begun resuming operations, slightly pushing up regional coal supplies. Sxcoal learned that some halted private mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia reopened today.

However, overall supply is expected to stay relatively tight in the short run as safety inspections may intensify ahead of the "Two Sessions" scheduled to start in early March.

Demand-side dynamics presented a mixed picture. Some downstream buyers modestly increased purchases to fulfill contracts, and several end users engaged in small, essential restocking. Mines offering premium and cheaper thermal coal grades enjoyed decent sales, favoring minor upward price adjustments.

Pre-holiday destocking exceeded expectations, and average operating rates at domestic mines lingered low, market sources confirmed. This, combined with thin thermal coal imports, shored up an optimistic outlook for domestic coal prices post-holiday.

In Inner Mongolia's Ordos, 5,800 Kcal/kg NAR washed coal (S 0.2%) gained 2 yuan/t to 538 yuan/t, ex-washplant with VAT. A local miner also raised offers for raw coal by 10 yuan/t to 455 yuan/t, mine-mouth with VAT.

"Our group's mines have started full production, and demand is good," a producer in the region pointed out, noting smooth shipments to certain railway stations.

Similarly, a 5-10 yuan/t price growth was observed in Shaanxi's Yulin. 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR washed slack coal (S 0.5%) reached 525 yuan/t, ex-washplant with VAT, up 10 yuan/t.

Nevertheless, overall downstream demand remained subdued. Railway station-based traders and washing plants exercised caution in purchasing decisions. Several miners were still struggling with poor sales after resuming operations. As such, certain thermal cargoes faced sustained downward pressure.

Ordos-sourced 6,000 Kcal/kg NAR washed lump grade fell 27 yuan/t to 591 yuan/t, ex-washplant with VAT, reflecting muted demand for lump coal with very few coal trucks arriving.

Temperatures in northern China are expected to rise over the next two days. Most areas are set to turn warmer, with the 10 degrees Celsius threshold pushing northward to northeastern China's Jilin. Despite potential cold air, power plants are unlikely to significantly increase coal intakes, instead relying primarily on long-term contract coal.

A miner source in Ordos kept offers for 5,500-5,800 Kcal/kg NAR slack and lump cargoes stable, as only necessary shipments failed to boost price upticks.

The domestic thermal coal market is likely to trade within a narrow range, with neither buyers nor sellers willing to make bold corrections until clearer signals emerge about the sustainability of the post-holiday demand rebound.

On February 24, Sxcoal assessed Datong 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal at 580 yuan/t, mine-mouth with VAT, up 3 yuan/t from the pre-holiday level. Ordos 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR material gained 2 yuan/t to 525 yuan/t, while Yulin 5,800 Kcal/kg NAR grade remained unchanged at 598 yuan/t.