China's coal imports fell in October 2026 from the high levels above 40 million tonnes seen since June, a pullback widely expected given the traditional off-season for coal consumption.

The country imported 39.43 million tonnes of coal in October 2026, down 5.52% year on year and 9.08% from the previous month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. In January-October 2026, imports totaled 393 million tonnes, up 1.4% from the same period a year earlier.

Entering October, thermal coal consumption shifted into the off-season. As temperatures fell nationwide, compounded by typhoon activity, daily coal burn at power plants retreated from highs and inventory coverage days rebounded, sharply reducing the urgency to restock. Purchases were dominated by long-term contract deliveries and small spot orders for immediate needs, with strong resistance to high-priced market coal.

Against this backdrop, although inquiries in the domestic tender market remained steady, overseas miners held firm on offers and importers showed little willingness to bid at low prices, weighing on tender transactions — one of the reasons for the decline in imports. In addition, the low price ceiling for imported coal made it difficult for traders to lock in cargoes for resale, also hurting spot transactions.

On the supply side from major source countries, Indonesian coal exports remained constrained by slow approvals of RKAB production quotas and drought affecting major inland rivers, with limited incremental volumes and miners keen to defend prices. Mongolia was even more notable: the country's coal exports totaled only 7.40 million tonnes in October, down 11.96% from the previous month.

Domestically, as supply-guarantee policies were gradually implemented — particularly the further recovery of raw coal output in Shanxi province — supply continued to improve, with long-term contract coal in particular displacing some import demand.

In addition, although the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments repeatedly urged key regions and enterprises to increase coal imports and give full play to imported coal's supplementary and balancing role, with imported coal prices elevated and domestic supply recovering, imports remain positioned as a "supplementary adjustment" rather than a primary source.

That said, high domestic coal prices, maintenance on the Daqin line and slow supply recovery under intense safety inspections widened the arbitrage window for imported coal, keeping it highly favored — especially high-CV Australian coal. As a result, October imports, though down from highs, still stood at a relatively high level above 39 million tonnes.

Looking ahead, although this winter is expected to be mild, cold waves should not be underestimated and winter stockpiling deserves close attention. With limited room for domestic supply growth, the balancing role of imported coal will continue to emerge.

Therefore, China's coal imports in November are expected to rebound from October but are unlikely to reach September's level. The year-on-year decline may continue, though the pace of the drop is likely to narrow.