The climate achievements of the ASEAN Power Grid depend on the generation policies of major member states, some of which are still expanding coal-fired capacity even as they pursue renewable targets, according to an analysis by think tank Asialink.

The ASEAN Power Grid is being financed and promoted as a climate initiative, but Indonesia and Vietnam — two of the grid's most important participants — are still facing growing coal-fired power capacity, weighing on the credibility of the grid's climate targets, the analysis said.

Indonesia's latest electricity plan targets 42.6 GW of new renewable capacity, around 61% of additions, but also locks in 6.3 GW of new on-grid coal capacity and 8.6 GW of captive coal for industrial operators, largely outside public accounting.

The analysis noted that Indonesia's Just Energy Transition Partnership, signed in 2022 with a $21.4 billion pledge, has approved only 14.5% of funding, while early retirement ambitions have shrunk from 5 GW to 1.6 GW. Jakarta confirmed in December 2025 that it would not close the 660 MW Cirebon-1 plant ahead of schedule, reversing an agreement with the Asian Development Bank.

Vietnam's Power Development Plan 8 aims to cut coal's share of generation below 20% by 2030, but total coal capacity is still projected to rise from 21 GW to about 30 GW over the period, according to the analysis. The country is also leaning harder on imported gas as domestic reserves deplete, adding vulnerability amid volatile LNG markets.

Domestic politics further complicate the picture, with lower prices putting additional pressure on coal phase-out plans. Indonesia capped the coal price paid by state utility PLN at $70/t in June, below prevailing international levels, while Vietnam's coal capacity is largely controlled by state-owned enterprises that keep domestic prices below market rates.

The analysis said these factors create a quiet dilution of targets that is easy to disguise and difficult to police, with coal retirement downgrades buried in technical annexes and rarely subject to outside scrutiny. Even if interconnection proceeds on schedule, the electricity flowing through cross-border lines risks carrying far more coal-fired power than regional pledges suggest.

Vietnam recorded the fastest emissions growth of any major economy over the past decade, up 106% between 2014 and 2024, with Indonesia close behind at 63.1%, the analysis noted. Indonesia's energy sector emissions are not projected to peak until 2035, while Vietnam's net zero target has yet to clear its legislature.

The question facing COP31 in Antalya this November is not whether Jakarta and Hanoi still believe their climate numbers, but whether their actual power plans still back them up, the analysis concluded.