South Africa currently has 16 project proposals for mostly thermal coal projects in the pipeline with an aggregate capacity of 44mn t/yr, according to the IEA.

Globally, new or expanded coal mines aimed at the export market with a total capacity of 430mn t/yr are planned, the IEA says in its Coal 2024 Analysis and forecast to 2027 report.

Last year coal consumption in Africa increased by 6mn t to 191mn t, the IEA estimates, driven mainly by South Africa's higher coal consumption owing to an improved performance by state-owned Eskom's electricity plants.

In the near term, the IEA forecasts modest growth in Africa's total coal demand to 203mn t/yr by 2027.

South Africa increased its coal consumption to 165mn t last year on improved economic activity and less load shedding. The country is by far the biggest coal consumer in Africa, accounting for 86pc of the continent's coal consumption in 2023.

Strong electricity demand growth is expected to create room for an additional 14 TWh of coal-fired generation in South Africa over the next three years, the IEA predicts.

Three coal-fired power plants of 4.5GW capacity that were due to shut by 2027 will run until at least 2030. Hence the IEA projects that South Africa's coal consumption for power generation will rise to 124mn t by 2027.

"The future of coal demand in South Africa will be shaped by policy makers' decisions regarding the coal-fired power fleet, either to invest in their maintenance to keep them running for longer or to phase them out," the IEA says.

Coal production in South Africa grew marginally over the past two years to 234mn t in 2024, the IEA estimates.

The main challenges to increasing production have been an unstable electricity grid and frequent disruptions to coal transport as state-owned Transnet has struggled with collisions, equipment failures, cable theft, derailments, power outages and increased costs.

Last year, South Africa's Canyon Coal started shipments from its Gugulethu mine that is set to produce 2.4mn t/yr, half of which will be NAR 5,500 kcal/kg fob RB thermal coal.

After years of being in administration, the Optimum coal mine was added to the project pipeline after new owner Liberty Coal settled outstanding legal issues related to the mine. Liberty plans to increase Optimum's capacity to 11mn t/yr of mid-CV thermal coal, but the mine first needs significant reconstruction.

Until 2027, the IEA expects coal production in South Africa and most other African countries to remain flat, apart from Ethiopia where a new coal mine will slightly boost output, the IEA said.

But growing steel production in Mozambique and Zimbabwe is set to propel coal production.

In Mozambique, India's state-controlled Steel Authority of India (Sail) will invest up to $200mn over the next four years to double the capacity of its Benga coking coal mine to 4.5mn t/yr. Most of the mine's output is intended for Sail's internal use in India.

In Zimbabwe, Chinese firm Tsingshan Holding's Dinson Iron and Steel (Disco) unit started production last year, with initial capacity of 600,000 t/yr to be expanded to 5mn t/yr once the plant is complete.

In addition, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Botswana plan a major infrastructure project, which includes a new deepwater port at Techobanine, south of Maputo, that will cost up to $1.5bn. Botswana plans to revive a long-standing project to create a 1,700km rail link through Zimbabwe to Maputo, enabling the landlocked country to export its coal reserves estimated at over 200bn t.

South African infrastructure operator Grindrod will take full ownership of the Matola Coal Terminal in Mozambique by spending $77mn to acquire Vitol's 35pc stake. Grindrod then intends to expand the terminal's capacity beyond its current 7mn t/yr.

Thai Mocambique Logistica plans to construct a coal port at Macuse in Mozambique and build a railway line to connect the port with coal mines in Tete province.

Neighbouring Malawi also aims to import coal from Tete via a rehabilitated railway from Balaka to its capital Lilongwe. "The country is seen as a favourable option for coal exports compared to South Africa, whose ports are expected to reach capacity limits," the IEA says.

Elaine Mills

WASHINGTON/BEIJING, Feb 4 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he is in no hurry to speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping to try to defuse a new trade war between the world's two largest economies sparked by his sweeping 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports.

China imposed targeted tariffs on U.S. imports on Tuesday and put several companies, including Google, on notice for possible sanctions, in a measured response to Trump's tariffs.

"That's fine," Trump said at the White House when asked about China's retaliatory duties.

A conversation between Xi and Trump is seen as key to a potential easing or delay of tariffs, as conversations with Mexican and Canadian leaders did on Monday.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that a Trump-Xi call still needed to be scheduled.

"President Xi did reach out to President Trump to speak about this, maybe to begin a negotiation. So we'll see how that call goes," Leavitt told Fox Business Network earlier on Tuesday.

Beijing's limited reply to Trump's imposition of a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports underscored the attempt by Chinese policymakers to engage Trump in talks to avert an outright trade war between the world's two largest economies.

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said China hoped Washington would work with Beijing to ensure stable, healthy and sustainable ties between the two countries.

The International Monetary Fund, which last month warned that a spike in protectionist policies could hit investment and disrupt supply chains, said it was "in the interests of all to find constructive ways to resolve disagreements and enable trade."

Capital Economics, a UK-based research firm, estimated that China's additional tariffs would apply to about $20 billion of annual imports, compared with the $450 billion worth of Chinese goods subject to the Trump tariff that took effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday (0501 GMT).

"The measures are fairly modest, at least relative to U.S. moves, and have been calibrated to send a message to the U.S.," Julian Evans-Pritchard, the firm's head of China Economics, said in a note.

Trump on Monday suspended his threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement.

EUROPE NEXT?

Trump suggested on Sunday that the European Union would be his next target for tariffs, but did not say when.

Ursula von der Leyen, head of the EU's executive European Commission, said Brussels would be ready for tough negotiations but underlined the need to lay foundations for a stronger partnership with the EU's largest trade and investment partner.

"We will be open and pragmatic in how to achieve that. But we will make it equally clear that we will always protect our own interests – however and whenever that is needed," she said in a speech.

The European Commission and the new U.S. administration have been in contact at a technical level but von der Leyen and Trump have not spoken directly yet, a Commission spokesperson said.

China's new measures, announced as the Trump tariffs took effect, include a 15% levy on U.S. coal and LNG and 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and a small number of trucks as well as big-engine sedans shipped to China from the United States.

China said it was starting an anti-monopoly investigation into Alphabet's (GOOGL.O). It put PVH Corp (PVH.N), the holding company for brands including Calvin Klein, and U.S. biotechnology company Illumina (ILMN.O), on a list for potential sanctions.

PVH said in a statement it was surprised and "deeply disappointed" by China's decision, adding it maintains strict compliance with all relevant laws, regulations and standards.

"Illumina has a long-standing presence in China ... Wherever Illumina operates, we comply with all laws and regulations," an Illumina spokesperson said in an email.

Google declined to comment on the investigation.

EXPORT CONTROLS ON SOME METALS

China said it was imposing export controls on some metals, including tungsten, that are critical for electronics, military equipment and solar panels.

The 10% duty China announced on electric trucks imported from the United States could apply to Elon Musk's Cybertruck, a niche offering Tesla (TSLA.O), has been promoting in China. Tesla had no immediate comment.

China's new tariffs will not take effect until Monday, giving Washington and Beijing time to try to seek a deal that Chinese policymakers have indicated they hope to reach with Trump as China's domestic demand sputters.

During his first presidential term, Trump initiated a two-year trade war with China over its U.S. trade surplus, with tit-for-tat tariffs upending global supply chains and damaging the world economy.

"The trade war is in the early stages so the likelihood of further tariffs is high," Oxford Economics said in a note as it downgraded its China economic growth forecast.

Trump said he might increase tariffs on China further unless Beijing stemmed the flow of fentanyl, a deadly opioid, into the United States.

China has called fentanyl America's problem and said it would challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization and take other countermeasures, while leaving the door open for talks.

The United States is a relatively small source of crude oil for China, accounting for 1.7% of its imports last year, worth about $6 billion. Just over 5% of China's LNG imports come from the United States.

"Even if the two countries (the United States and China) can agree on some issues, it is possible to see tariffs being used as a recurrent tool, which can be a key source of market volatility this year," said Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis in Hong Kong.

There was relief in Ottawa and Mexico City after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said they had agreed to bolster border enforcement, pausing for 30 days 25% U.S. tariffs due to take effect on Tuesday.

EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said he wanted early talks with the United States to ward off potential tariffs.

"We believe through constructive engagement and discussion we can resolve this problem," he said.

SINGAPORE, Feb 4 (Reuters) - China is the world's top energy importer but its purchases from the United States are relatively modest, blunting the impact of Beijing's move on Tuesday to slap retaliatory tariffs on imports of U.S. crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal.

Shortly after tariffs on China imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump took effect on Tuesday, China's Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15% on imports of U.S. coal and LNG and 10% for crude oil as well as on farm equipment and some autos, starting on Feb. 10.

Chinese imports of U.S. crude oil declined 52% to about 230,540 barrels per day (bpd) in the first 11 months of 2024 from the same period a year earlier, data from U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.

For the full year, U.S. imports accounted for 1.7% of China's crude imports, worth about $6 billion, according to Chinese customs data, down from 2.5% in 2023.

However, China's LNG imports from the U.S. have been growing, totalling 4.16 million metric tons last year worth $2.41 billion, customs data showed, nearly double 2018 volumes for the fuel used in power generation and accounting for roughly 5.4% of China's purchases.

U.S. LNG imported via long-term contracts could remain economical for Chinese buyers, even with the tariff, compared with spot prices , but they are likely to avoid buying spot U.S. cargoes, ICIS analyst Alex Siow said.

"Chinese companies will likely hunt for other spot sources, such as those from Asia," he said. "It might not be easy to find though, given that 2025 continues to be a tight market."

The tariffs will also impact Chinese importers seeking new long-term supply deals with the U.S., especially second-tier buyers like utilities or city gas companies which lack trading capabilities, said a Beijing-based LNG trader.

The U.S. is the top global LNG shipper but is the No.5 supplier to China. Still, it has ambitions for sharp increases in LNG exports in coming years under Trump, with China, the world's biggest importer of the fuel, seen as a potential customer for even more.

MST Marquee energy analyst Saul Kavonic said the tariffs by China, which bought around 10% of U.S. LNG exports last year, will drive more U.S. volumes to Europe and benefit other regional producers such as Australia.

"The negative impact on U.S. LNG from these tariffs will only partly offset the strong appetite from other buyers to procure more U.S. LNG under pressure from Trump to rebalance trade deficits," he said.

CRUDE COSTS

FGE analyst Mia Geng said when China imposed 25% tariffs on U.S. crude oil during the trade war in Trump's first administration, China stopped its purchases of 300,000-400,000 barrels per day of U.S. crude and turned to alternatives such as West Africa and Asian supply.

"We are still assessing this internally but it looks like we will see a pause in buying while light-sweet alternatives will be sought after. This impacts about 100,000 bpd of recent U.S. inflows, which is not a big amount for Chinese refiners," she said.

The tariffs will make flows of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude into China expensive relative to alternatives such as Kazakhstan's CPC and Abu Dhabi's Murban grades, said Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh.

"However, in the big scheme of things, this should not impact the price of WTI significantly as WTI can still flow to other regions easily," Goh said.

A Chinese crude oil trader said the tariff would hit state refining giant Sinopec the most, as the country's largest buyer of U.S. oil.

He expects Chinese importers to seek waivers from Beijing, as they previously did, while refiners are expected to seek alternative supplies and increase shipments from the Middle East.

The trade sources spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media.

Sinopec did not immediately respond to a request for comment on a public holiday in China.

As for coal, China is not a big importer from the United States, but the value of shipments of coking coal - used mainly in steelmaking - rose by nearly a third to $1.84 billion in 2024, customs data showed.

KONTAN.CO.ID - JAKARTA. PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) mencetak rekor penjualan tertinggi sepanjang sejarah perusahaan tambang plat merah tersebut. Total penjualan batubara PTBA mencapai 42,9 juta ton sepanjang tahun 2024.

Capaian itu mencerminkan kenaikan 15,94% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya (year on year/yoy). Sebagai perbandingan, penjualan batubara PTBA pada tahun 2023 sebesar 37 juta ton.

Penjualan batubara PTBA konsisten tumbuh, setidaknya sejak tahun 2020. PTBA menjual batubara sbeanyak 26,1 juta ton pada 2020, naik menjadi 28,4 juta ton pada 2021, dan melonjak ke level 31,7 juta ton pada tahun 2022.

Corporate Secretary Bukit Asam Niko Chandra mengungkapkan rekor penjualan batubara PTBA pada tahun lalu ditopang oleh kenaikan volume ekspor. PTBA mengekspor batubara sebanyak 20,3 juta ton pada 2024 atau meningkat sekitar 30% secara tahunan.

Meski volume ekspor melonjak, tapi penjualan batubara PTBA masih didominasi oleh pasar domestik. Realisasi Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) PTBA tahun 2024 sebesar 22,6 juta ton, atau tumbuh sekitar 6% dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya.

"Namun secara bauran, porsi ekspor semakin meningkat. Saat ini, porsi pasar domestik sebesar 53?n ekspor 47%. Potensi pasar-pasar utama berhasil dimaksimalkan, misalnya ekspor ke India meningkat 32% menjadi 6,4 juta ton," ungkap Niko dalam rilis yang diterima Kontan.co.id, Selasa (4/2).

Selain India, ekspor ke Vietnam, Thailand dan Malaysia juga mengalami kenaikan. Penjualan ke Vietnam meningkat sekitar 250% menjadi 3 juta ton. Ekspor ke Thailand mencapai 1,6 juta ton, atau naik sekitar 153%, serta ekspor ke Malaysia melonjak sekitar 221% secara tahunan menjadi 888.700 ton.

Niko bilang, peningkatan penjualan batubara PTBA ikut terdorong oleh realisasi produksi sebesar 43,3 juta ton dan angkutan batubara sebesar 38,2 juta ton sepanjang 2024. Realisasi produksi dan angkutan batubara ini juga mencapai rekor tertinggi.

Sebagai target operasional yang ingin dicapai pada tahun 2025, PTBA menargetkan produksi batubara sebesar 50 juta ton, penjualan 50,1 juta ton, serta angkutan 43,2 juta ton. 

"Perseroan melakukan perencanaan dengan mencermati perkembangan pasar terkini dan mengantisipasi berbagai faktor eksternal yang dinamis," tandas Niko.

Dari sisi pergerakan saham, harga PTBA naik 0,37% ke posisi Rp 2.680 per saham pada sesi I perdagangan Selasa (4/2). Jika diukur secara year to date, harga saham PTBA mengakumulasi pelemahan 2,55%.

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Harga batu bara terus mengalami penurunan sejak Oktober 2024. Saat ini bahkan sudah menyentuh level yang lebih rendah dibandingkan Februari 2024.

Dilansir dari Refinitiv, harga batu bara pada 04 Februari 2025 tercatat sebesar US$114,4 /ton atau turun 2,78% dibandingkan penutupan perdagangan 03 Februari 2025 yang sebesar US$118,8/ton.

Dilansir dari oilprice.com, India mengurangi impor batu bara sepanjang 2024, yang sekilas tampak sebagai kabar baik bagi emisi sektor energi di negara konsumen batu bara terbesar kedua di dunia. Namun, jika ditelusuri lebih dalam, penurunan ini justru menimbulkan tantangan baru dalam upaya mengurangi polusi.

India berupaya mengurangi ketergantungan pada pasokan batu bara asing untuk memenuhi permintaan listrik yang terus meningkat dengan meningkatkan produksi domestik. Kendati cadangan batu bara dalam negeri melimpah, kualitasnya umumnya lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan batu bara impor.

Karena nilai energi yang lebih rendah, India harus membakar lebih banyak batu bara lokal untuk menghasilkan jumlah energi yang sama. Akibatnya, emisi sektor energi tetap tinggi, bahkan berpotensi meningkat, seperti yang dikemukakan oleh kolumnis Reuters Gavin Maguire.

Sebagai konsumen batu bara terbesar kedua di dunia setelah China, peningkatan penggunaan batu bara berkualitas rendah di India juga tidak membantu upaya global dalam mengurangi emisi sektor energi.

Laporan International Energy Agency (IEA) pada Desember 2024 mencatat bahwa permintaan batu bara global mencapai rekor tertinggi tahun lalu, dan diperkirakan akan stabil hingga 2027.

Seiring dengan menurunnya impor, India semakin banyak membakar batu bara berkualitas lebih rendah dari tambang domestiknya.

Pada tahun fiskal 2023-2024 yang berakhir Maret 2024, produksi batu bara India mencapai rekor tertinggi sebesar 997,8 juta ton, naik 11,7% dibandingkan tahun fiskal sebelumnya, menurut Kementerian Batu Bara India pada Desember 2024.

Dalam periode Januari-15 Desember 2024, India memproduksi sekitar 988,3 juta ton batu bara, meningkat 7,66% dibandingkan tahun 2023.

Sebagai bagian dari strategi mengurangi ketergantungan pada impor, Kementerian Batu Bara India juga mengambil langkah-langkah untuk meningkatkan produksi batu bara kokas-jenis yang digunakan di industri berat seperti pembuatan baja.

(rev/rev)