Preliminary data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources revealed an output of 831 million tons in 2024, exceeding the government’s target by 17%.

As the world’s largest coal exporter, Indonesia relies heavily on this fossil fuel for its domestic electricity needs, despite plans by President Prabowo Subianto to phase out coal-fired power plants by 2040.

A December report by the International Energy Agency showed that global coal consumption has doubled in the past three decades, though demand is set to stabilize by 2027. In most advanced economies, coal demand has peaked and is expected to keep decreasing through 2027.

Indonesia’s rising production poses challenges to its 2040 coal phase-out goal, particularly as the country lags behind regional peers in renewable energy deployment.

Major coal producers, including China, have also increased output to meet global demand, despite an urgent need for the world to turn to cleaner sources of energy.

LITTLETON, Colorado, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Europe's wind farms could produce more electricity than the region's coal-fired power plants for the first time in 2025 if the recent pace of output growth in wind production and output cuts in coal generation extends through the year.

Total electricity generated by Europe's wind farms was just 4% less than by the continent's coal plants in 2024, at 616 terawatt hours (TWh) versus 641 TWh, according to data from energy think tank Ember.

Compared to the year before, coal generation was 7% lower in 2024 while wind generation was 3% higher, and if those output changes are repeated in 2025 then Europe's wind electricity production will surpass coal production by around 6% in 2025.

Greater full-year generation by wind farms over coal plants would mark the first time a single source of renewable energy surpassed coal-fired electricity output in any major region, and would be a key energy transition milestone.

NARROWING THE GAP

The 25 TWh shortfall in wind generation compared to coal-fired generation in 2024 is around half of the amount of electricity produced by Europe's wind farms each month, according to Ember.

As a result, that output gap could easily be made up over the course of 2025 by an increase in regional wind generation capacity or by higher average wind speeds at turbine level, or by some combination of both.

According to industry group Wind Europe, regional power firms added 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind generation capacity in 2024, bringing the region's total wind capacity to around 287 GW. 

That rise in generation footprint should allow the region's wind farms to lift regional electricity production to a record in 2025, potentially to around 652 TWh if the 6% growth in capacity yields an equal-sized rise in electricity output.

KEY RISKS

That potential 652 TWh of wind electricity output should be enough to surpass regional coal generation in 2025, even if coal-fired output holds flat this year from 2024's levels.

But if coal-fired output in 2025 declines by the same degree as it did in 2024 - by 7% - then wind generation could surpass coal-fired generation by close to 10%, and mark a major turning point in regional energy transition efforts.

However, there are several risks facing Europe's power sector this year that could still result in regional coal power remaining above regional wind output.

The main potential disruptive factor is the supply of natural gas, which looks set to contract again in 2025 after pipeline flows from Russia to certain European markets dropped from last year's levels.

Natural gas is the region's main power source, so reduced gas supplies this year could force Europe's utilities to boost coal use in order to offset lower system generation from gas.

Just a 1% drop in natural gas-fired electricity generation would require power firms to produce around 10 TWh more electricity from other sources.

And if coal-fired plants are the main means of offsetting that lower gas-fired output, then regional coal-fired production could jump back above 650 TWh for the year, and potentially remain above wind output in 2025.

Another key risk is an extended run of below-normal wind speeds across Europe's wind farms.

In 2024, Europe's monthly wind electricity totals dropped below the year-before total on five occasions, even with the rise in overall generation capacity last year.

These year-over-year generation drops came not just during the summer - when wind speeds tend to hit their annual lows - but also during October and November when autumnal winds typically pick up and boost wind electricity output.

The low wind speed problem was particularly acute in Germany - the region's top wind producer - and remains a worry for power firms so far in 2025. read more

The latest German wind generation forecasts by LSEG call for wind output to remain below the long-term average for the next week or so, but then climb back above normal towards the end of the month.

Further spells of low wind speeds throughout the year could curtail overall wind generation in 2025.

An additional risk is the region's level of industrial activity, which has been subdued since 2022 due to above-normal energy costs and weak consumer demand.

Continued weakness among smokestack plants and factories should keep overall coal use in power generation under pressure, and potentially trigger further cuts to coal use in Europe.

However, a synchronized upturn in Europe's industrial activity would trigger a rise in overall energy consumption, which would result in greater output from all power sources as power suppliers try to keep up with demand.

Of course, higher overall wind output could help supply much of the extra electricity needed, and help to accelerate the regional power sector pivot away from polluting fuels.

But coal will likely remain a key back-up fuel and could enjoy a resurgence in use if wind production becomes stymied through much of 2025.

The National Coal Index (provisional) has showed a sharp decline of 13 percent in November compared to the year ago period, indicating adequate supply of the vital fuel, the latest coal ministry data seen by Moneycontrol shows.

The National Coal Index (NCI) is a price index that combines coal prices from all sales channels — notified prices, auction prices, and import prices. It considers prices of coking and non-coking coal of various grades transacted in the regulated (power and fertiliser) and non-regulated sectors.

A drop in NCI indicates sufficient availability of coal in the market to meet the growing demands of the country. It signifies a more equitable market, harmonising supply and demand dynamics.

Here is a month-on-month comparison of NCI for Indian coal:

India met a peak power demand of 250 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, an all-time high for the country, and even though it was lower than the projected demand of 256 GW, at least 70 percent of it was fuelled by coal-fired (thermal) power plants.

Thermal power generation across the country also hit an all-time high in 2024, touching 176 GW to meet the peak demand, according to the power ministry. In 2024, India added about 4 GW of coal-fired power capacity.

For 2025, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has projected the peak power demand of 270 GW in the summer season, with coal-fired thermal power going to meet most of the demand.

In 2024, coal production reached an all-time high of 1,039.59 million tonnes (MT), marking a 7.28 percent growth from the previous year. The growth reflects the government's strategic efforts to enhance domestic coal availability to meet the country's growing energy demand as well as that of manufacturing industries.

Even in the Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI), the coal sector demonstrated a growth of 7.5 percent to 199.6 points in November compared to 185.7 points in the year-ago period.

The ICI measures the combined and individual performance of production of eight core industries — cement, coal, crude oil, electricity, fertilizers, natural gas, refinery products, and steel.

"The index of coal industry has reached 172.9 points during April-November 2024 as compared to 162.5 points during the same period of last year, showcasing the highest growth of 6.4 percent among the all eight core industries," the coal ministry said in a statement.

The driving force behind the positive development can be attributed to a significant surge in coal production in April-November period, the ministry said. The government has been focusing on optimising coal production and infrastructure development to reduce its dependence on imported coal.

Coal accounts for about three-quarters of India’s power generation and its demand continues to rise despite the country’s renewables plans. India has seen a spike in peak demand for electricity in the past two years, even as it has struggled to add renewable energy capacity in line with its goal of 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) memberikan insentif untuk pengusaha biodiesel yang menjalankan program B40 di tahun ini. Namun, pemberian insentif tersebut hanya berlaku untuk sektor Public Service Obligation atau PSO.

Direktur Jenderal Energi Baru Terbarukan dan Konservasi Energi (Dirjen EBTKE), Eniya Listiani Dewi mengatakan bahwa pemberian insentif untuk program B40 dihitung berdasarkan selisih harga solar dan harga biodiesel.

"Kita melihat harga insentif itu kan dihitung dari selisih harga solar dan selisih harga biodieselnya sendiri. Jadi ada gap harganya biodiesel yang tinggi ini diberikan insentif," kata dia dalam acara Energy Corner CNBC Indonesia, dikutip Senin (13/1/2025).

Insentif ini berasal dari pungutan ekspor kelapa sawit yang dikelola oleh Badan Pengelola Dana Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit (BPDPKS). Adapun, dengan diberlakukannya kebijakan B40, kuota biodiesel pada 2025 naik menjadi 15,6 juta kilo liter (kl). Dari kuota itu pemerintah bakal mengalokasikan 7,55 juta KL untuk PSO dan sisanya sebesar 8,07 juta kl kepada Non-PSO.

"Nah dari sini kalau untuk yang non-PSO kan dibebankan kepada konsumen saat ini kalau yang non-PSO harganya itu sudah sekitar 13 ribuan. 13 ribuan nanti bertambah sekitar antara Rp 1.500-2.000," kata Eniya.

Lebih lanjut, ia menjelaskan meskipun dibebankan kepada konsumen, pemerintah memastikan bahwa kebijakan ini tidak akan mempengaruhi inflasi. Mengingat, pemerintah telah melakukan studi sebelum kebijakan ini diberlakukan.

"Ini kita sebelum kita melakukan mandatori kemarin studinya sudah selesai dan dalam kajian kita melihat bahwa tidak mempengaruhi inflasi," ujarnya.

(ven/mij)

Bloomberg Technoz, Jakarta – Kalangan pelaku industri berpendapat wajib penempatan devisa hasil ekspor sumber daya alam (DHE SDA) di dalam negeri, yang diperpanjang dari 3 bulan menjadi 1 tahun, bakal menjadi pukulan mundur bagi industri pertambangan nasional.

Plt Direktur Eksekutif  Asosiasi Pertambangan Batu Bara Indonesia/Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI/ICMA) Gita Mahyarani mengatakan, pada dasarnya, penambang akan tetap mengikuti peraturan yang diterapkan pemerintah.

Dia pun menyebut pelaku industri pertambangan di sektor batu bara selama ini juga sudah patuh terhadap mandatori penempatan DHE SDA selama 3 bulan.

“Namun, kiranya jika ada rencana aturan baru, [pemerintah] perlu mempertimbangkan sisi industri dan dampaknya ke seluruh skala penambang,” ujarnya saat dihubungi, dikutip Minggu (12/1/2025).

Gita mengisyaratkan, makin lama rentang parkir DHE SDA di dalam negeri, makin rawan pula gangguan arus kas yang akan dihadapi oleh perusahaan tambang.

Dengan masa wajib penempatan yang akan diperpanjang selama 1 tahun, menurutnya, perusahaan tambang bakal kesulitan menjaga arus kas lantaran mereka tidak bisa memutarkan dana dari penjualan ekspor yang semestinya dapat dipakai untuk pembayaran kontraktor, vendor, dan sebagainya.

“Dengan keterbatasan tersebut, [penambang] juga akan sulit berinvestasi ataupun pembelian alat tambang. Belum lagi kenaikan harga lainnya yg menjadi tanggungan perusahaan,” tuturnya.

Selanggam, Direktur Eksekutif Asosiasi Pertambangan Indonesia/Indonesian Mining Association (IMA) Hendra Sinadia juga menyebut kewajiban DHE yang berlaku selama ini saja cukup memberatkan penambang di tengah tren pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS).

“Meski bagi perusahaan yang berbasis ekspor menikmati penguatan kurs dolar, dampaknya tidak terlalu besar karena adanya kewajiban penempatan 30% DHE SDA selama minimal tiga bulan,” ujarnya belum lama ini.

Dengan adanya kebijakan DHE SDA, dia menyebut perusahaan tambang kesulitan mengelola arus kas sehingga mereka kesulitan memaksimalkan target produksi dan ekspor.

Di sisi lain, tekanan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah membuat pelaku usaha mulai menghitung ulang potensi kenaikkan biaya produksi. Hendra menjelaskan biaya operasional sejatinya setiap tahun sudah meningkat, kini akan tambah meningkat imbas pelemahan rupiah.

“Sebagian besar komponen alat berat itu masih impor, kemudian biaya kontraktor sebagian besar dalam dolar AS dan komponen biaya lainnya,” tutur Hendra.

Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Airlangga Hartarto medio pekan ini menyebut pemerintah akan memperpanjang ketentuan jangka waktu kewajiban penyimpanan DHE SDA di Indonesia menjadi minimal satu tahun dari sebelumnya hanya tiga bulan.

Akan tetapi, dia menjanjikan pemerintah juga tengah mempersiapkan insentif yang menarik untuk eksportir sebagai kompensasi atas perubahan ketentuan DHE bersama dengan Bank Indonesia dan perbankan.

Ketentuan tentang penempatan DHE SDA selama ini termaktub di dalam  Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 36 Tahun 2023 tentang Devisa Hasil Ekspor dari Kegiatan Pengusahaan, Pengelolaan dan/atau Pengolahan Sumber Daya Alam.

Imbas dari aturan tersebut, Ketua Dewan Ekonomi Nasional (DEN) Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan menyebut cadangan devisa mencapai US$155,7 miliar per Desember 2024; rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarah.

-- Dengan asistensi Mis Fransiska Dewi

(wdh)