Harga batubara Newcastle, yang dikapalkan dari Pelabuhan Newcastle, Australia, anjlok menjadi 102 dollar AS per ton pada Februari 2025. Pada September 2022, sempat mencapai 439 dollar AS per ton. Mengutip Trading Economics, harga terendah dalam hampir empat tahun terakhir ini akibat pasokan yang berlebih.

Indonesia, yang pada 2024 mengekspor 440,85 juta ton batubara, merasakan dampak kenaikan dan penurunan harga komoditas itu. Apalagi, Indonesia masih asyik menikmati harga komoditas. Apakah pelaku usaha pertambangan batubara di Indonesia siap menghadapi gejolak harga?

Pertanyaan serupa muncul pada pertambangan mineral logam. Selain itu, apakah pelaku usaha pertambangan mineral logam punya modal dan kompetensi untuk mengikuti perkembangan industri mineral, termasuk hilirisasi?

Tata kelola merupakan hal penting yang memengaruhi kualitas hasil usaha. Tak terkecuali pada pertambangan mineral dan batubara (minerba), yang memerlukan kompetensi, teknologi, dan biaya. Tata kelola ini tetap menjadi syarat yang tak bisa ditawar kendati pengelola tambang diperluas.

Rancangan Undang-Undang Perubahan Keempat atas Undang-Undang Nomor 4 Tahun 2009 tentang Pertambangan Mineral dan Batubara disetujui untuk ditetapkan menjadi UU pada Rapat Paripurna DPR, Selasa (18/2/2025). Dalam RUU itu disebutkan, wilayah izin usaha pertambangan (WIUP) minerba diberikan kepada badan usaha, koperasi, perusahaan perseorangan, badan usaha kecil dan menengah, atau badan usaha yang dimiliki organisasi kemasyarakatan keagamaan dengan cara lelang atau prioritas.

Pemerintah berharap, sektor minerba dapat menjadi penggerak utama ekonomi, mempercepat industrialisasi berbasis pemanfaatan sumber daya alam, dan memastikan manfaatnya dinikmati seluruh rakyat secara adil.

The Philippines will review plans to retire the 232MW Mindanao coal-fired power plant in Misamis Oriental province because the rehabilitation of a major regional power complex could cause an electricity supply shortage.

The country could put on hold plans to accelerate the retirement of the Mindanao coal plant to 2026 from 2031, the Department of Energy (DoE) said.

The plant, majority owned by private-sector Aboitiz Power, started operations in 2006 under a build-operate-transfer (BOT) agreement with the National Power and Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management. The plant was originally scheduled to be retired in 2031 once the BOT agreement had run its course and plant ownership transferred to the national government, but authorities later decided to shut it down by 2026. The plant consumes over 1mn t/yr of coal.

Authorities might review the retirement plans to offset the loss of power supply from the 1,000MW Agus-Pulangi hydropower complex, which will be rehabilitated next year. The complex comprises seven hydropower plants and serves as a key source of baseload power in the Mindanao grid. It is currently capable of producing only 600-700MW of power because of siltation and ageing infrastructure. Parts of the power complex are over 50 years old and its oldest dam, Agus 6, started commercial operations in April 1971. The rehabilitation involves repairing, replacing and upgrading the components of an existing hydroelectric power plant to restore its functionality, improve efficiency and extend its lifespan.

The complex will run at a derated capacity during rehabilitation works, which could take several years. This comes as power demand in the Mindanao grid continued to increase last year. Demand averaged 2.248GW in 2024, a 10.2pc increase from 2.040GW a year earlier.

The Mindanao plant could supply enough power to keep the grid stable at its full capacity, by covering for the loss in generating capacity and meeting the increase in power demand, DoE added.

By Antonio Delos Reyes

Domestic thermal coal supplies to Indian utilities rose in January as power plants continued to boost inventories.

Combined coal supplies to utilities from domestic sources such as state-controlled Coal India (CIL), Singareni Collieries (SCCL) and captive blocks stood at 76.41mn t, up by 5.8pc from a year earlier, provisional data from India's coal ministry show. Supply was also up from 76.04mn t in December.

Indian utilities continued to restock, although coal consumption at utilities was weaker than initially anticipated, as temperatures in most parts of the country were higher last month compared to historical averages, curbing power demand. India's coal-fired generation — which meets most of its power requirements — stood at 109.68TWh during January, down from 111.72TWh a year earlier, but up from 104.30TWh in December, Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data show.

Higher domestic coal supplies and weaker coal burn supported stock positions at utilities. Combined coal inventories at Indian power plants stood at around 50.5mn t on 31 January, up from 45.2mn t on 31 December and higher from 38.59mn t as of 31 January 2024, according to CEA data. The inventory as of the end of January would last for over 17 days at the current daily coal consumption rate at utilities.

Higher stocks and a steady uptick in domestic supplies might have pressured utility demand for imported coal and India's overall seaborne receipts last month. India imported 11.63mn t of thermal coal last month, down from 13.34mn t a year earlier, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. Imports reached 163mn t in 2024, down from 168.2mn t in 2023, Kpler data show.

Indian power sector imports, which account for more than 40pc of the country's overall imports, dropped on the year for the fourth straight month in December, and might have eased in January. Combined thermal coal imports by Indian utilities, excluding captive power plants, stood at 3.25mn t in December, down by 2.17mn t or 49pc from a year earlier, CEA data show. Imports could come under pressure if the government does not extend its directive to imported coal-fired plants, which have a combined capacity of 17.7GW, to boost generation under Section 11 of the Indian electricity law, which also gives some flexibility to such generators to sell excess production in the power market. The directive is due to expire on 28 February.

Production, supply mix

The increased supplies to utilities were supported by higher overall thermal production. India's coal output rose by 4.4pc in January from a year earlier to 104.49mn t. The country's supplies to all sectors stood at 93.21mn t last month, up by 6.7pc on the year.

CIL produced 77.79mn t in January, down from around 78.41mn t a year earlier, while it supplied 69.26mn t, rising from 67.52mn t last year, ministry data show. Of this, 55.01mn t of coal was supplied to the power sector in January, easing from 55.15mn t a year earlier.

Meanwhile, output at coal producer SCCL rose by 5pc from a year earlier to 6.97mn t in January. But its overall supplies in January fell by about 1.5pc on the year to 6.12mn t, while dispatches to the power sector rose by 2.2pc on the year to 5.6mn t.

Captive coal block producers and other small government mining entities comprised the remainder of the supplies to utilities in January. Output from captive coal blocks and other mining companies rose by over 31pc on the year to 19.72mn t in January, while supplies rose by nearly 30.7pc to 17.83mn t.

Data on domestic coal supplies to Indian utilities do not include dispatches to captive power plants set up by industries. Supplies to such captive utilities — from sources such as CIL, SCCL and captive coal blocks — reached 6.29mn t in January, up by almost 9pc from a year earlier.

Domestic supplies to steel and cement sector in January rose by 4.5pc and 31pc from a year earlier to 860,000t and 900,000t respectively, the ministry data show.

By Saurabh Chaturvedi

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Feb 17 (Reuters) - China's retaliatory tariffs against U.S. energy imports is likely to be most keenly felt in the seaborne market for metallurgical coal.

Beijing imposed a 15% import tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and 10% on crude oil on February 4 after U.S. President Donald Trump placed an additional 10% impost on all imports from China.

The tariffs are likely high enough to all but kill the energy trade between China, the world's biggest importer of coal, LNG and crude, and the United States, which is the largest exporter of LNG and ranks fourth in coal and crude oil.

However, the U.S. share of China's imports for crude and LNG is small, at around 2% and 5% respectively, meaning the global markets will likely be able to adjust rapidly and without too much difficulty.

It's a different story for metallurgical coal, also known as coking coal and the fuel primarily used to make steel.

China's total seaborne imports of coking coal were 43.02 million metric tons in 2024, of which the United States provided 5.02 million for a share of 11.7%, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

The United States was the fourth-largest supplier of seaborne coking coal to China, behind Australia with 15.91 million tons, Russia with 11.68 million and Canada with 7.79 million.

If the new tariffs do render U.S. coking coal uncompetitive in China, then China's steel makers will have to find suitable alternatives.

Of course, U.S. coking coal exporters could choose to discount the cost of cargoes in order to stay in the China market, but they are far more likely to seek to sell to other importers, such as top buyer India as well as Japan and South Korea.

Where is China likely to be able to source coking coal to replace U.S. supplies, working on the assumption its demand in 2025 remains constant from 2024.

It could try to squeeze some more out of Mongolia, it's top supplier via overland trains and trucks, but this coal would arrive in the wrong place, given that seaborne supplies go largely to coastal steel plants.

It's also questionable if Russia could increase output and rail capacity by enough to replace U.S. coking coal.

This largely leaves Australia and Canada as alternatives, with both exporters having the ability to supply China's demand.

But this may come at a cost, as Chinese steel makers may have to offer more to Australian and Canadian miners in order to draw supply away from buyers in other countries.

When China imposed an informal ban on all Australian coal in mid-2020 it resulted in imports from Australia dropping to almost nothing, but this was accompanied by rising prices for seaborne grades.

This was because China had to draw cargoes from exporters such as Indonesia for thermal coal and the United States and Canada for coking coal, and having to pay a premium to do so.

If China seeks to replace U.S. coking coal with cargoes from Australia and Canada, it will likely have to compete against Indian buyers.

India is the world's largest importer of coking coal, taking in 67.6 million tons in 2024, according to Kpler data.

India's biggest supplier was Australia, with the 34.88 million tons representing just over 50% of the total, with Russia second at 14.74 million and the United States third with 8.4 million.

The most logical way for China to move away from U.S. coking coal is for its steel markers to buy more from Australia, with India in turn buying less from Australia and taking more from the United States.

This is entirely possible, but will likely come at a price premium, at least initially.

Seaborne coking coal prices have been trending down for 16 months, with benchmark Australian contracts traded in Singapore going from $363 a ton in mid-October 2023 to $188 on February 14, a drop of 48.2%.

U.S. low-volatile coking coal at east coast ports was assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus at $187.50 a ton on February 13, in line with the Australian benchmark.

If Chinese buyers do switch to buy more Australian and possibly Canadian coking coal, it's likely that Australian prices will outperform their U.S. counterpart, especially if U.S. producers have to scramble to find alternatives buyers for cargoes that had been destined for China.

LITTLETON, Colorado, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Rapidly diverging power generation and emissions trends between the European Union (EU) and Russia highlight a growing energy use gap between several of Europe's largest economies and the former top supplier of energy products to the region.

For the first time, power producers in Russia emitted more carbon dioxide from fossil fuel use in 2024 than all their peers in the EU, data from energy think tank Ember shows.

That flip in emissions loads mainly reflects the significant and durable changes made to Europe's generation systems over the past three years, which have rendered the EU far less reliant on energy product imports for power.

However, Russia's higher fossil emissions load also reflects Moscow's growing dependence on fossil fuels for power generation, which hit record highs in 2024.

The contrasting power trends underscore how far apart the energy systems of the EU and Russia have become since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered sanctions against Moscow and an energy transition acceleration across Europe.

Europe's reduced reliance on power product imports also reveals Russia's sharply diminished leverage over many of its European neighbours compared to just a few years ago, which may weaken its position during any upcoming peace talks.

QUICK CUTS

Russia's power producers discharged 536 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel use in 2024, compared to 520 million tons emitted by EU power firms, Ember data shows.

As EU power firms discharged far more CO2 from fossil fuels than Russia until 2022, the deviation in emission trends since then highlights the scale of generation shifts seen in Europe in just the last three years.

In total, EU power emissions from fossil fuels dropped by 31?tween 2022 and 2024 as sanctions on Russia following the 2022 invasion roiled regional gas supplies and sparked a surge in power prices.

Tighter gas supplies and a more than doubling in wholesale power prices in 2022 from the 2020 to 2021 average forced European power firms and industrial gas users to slash gas-fired output.

Total gas-fired electricity generation by EU utilities alone dropped by 19?tween 2022 and 2024, according to Ember, while gas use by industry has also dropped sharply.

European power producers also slashed coal-fired generation by 40?tween 2022 and 2024, so that overall fossil fuel-fired power output dropped by 27% since 2022 to the lowest on record.

Over the same period, power firms and businesses also made major investments in clean power generation and in the electrification of energy production and use, which has permanently reduced fossil fuel dependence across the region.

RUSSIAN GROWTH

While power firms and industries across the EU have been slashing fossil fuel use, their counterparts in Russia have increased fossil fuel reliance.

Between 2022 and 2024, gas-fired electricity production in Russia grew by 2% while coal-fired output rose by 12% - both to record highs.

This has led to a widening in the share of fossil fuels within the power systems of both Russia and the EU.

In Russia, the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation increased from 63% in 2022 to 64% in 2024.

In the EU, that share has fallen from 39% in 2022 to a record low 29% in 2024.

Additional growth in renewables power generation capacity looks set to further eat into the EU's fossil fuel share over the coming years.

At the same time, as Russia is a major producer of natural gas, coal, and crude oil, the country may be forced to consume more of those commodities at home if Europe and other markets continue to curb purchases of those products.

That in turn could result in the emergence of dramatically different energy systems that may further reduce potential trade ties between Russia and the EU, even if a potential peace deal begins to take shape over the coming months.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.