Workers at major commodity ports across Australia will strike next week, in response to stalling negotiations with port operators.

Queensland

In northern Queensland, unions representing almost 200 workers have notified the Gladstone Ports (GPC) that they plan to launch work stoppages at the LNG and coal hub next week, a source told Argus.

The strike actions follow an earlier day-long work stoppage involving over 100 workers at the port that began earlier this week.

The dispute between GPC and its workers is centred around wage and rostering proposals. GPC and unions representing its workers have not scheduled any further bargaining meetings, multiple sources have told Argus.

Gladstone's ship queue has exceeded 30 ships multiple times since work stoppages began on 17 December. This compared with a queue of 48 ships in December 2023, after Cyclone Jasper forced three other north Queensland ports to turn vessels away for four days.

To the south of Gladstone, 100 workers at the Qube-operated Port of Brisbane will also stop working between 23-27 December, according to maritime logistics firm GAC.

The stoppage announcement follows a day-long strike at multiple Qube ports, which began on 16 December. Before the strike began, a Qube representative warned that strikes at its ports would "inevitably [cause] disruption to supply chains for key commodities like fertiliser, grain, and steel."

The Port of Brisbane is a major oil and meat port.

New South Wales

Along Australia's eastern coast, workers at Qube's major coal, grain, and fertiliser port in Port Kembla are planning to strike for a longer period of time than their colleagues in other parts of the country.

GAC has reported that workers will launch 13 rolling work stoppages at the port between 20 December and 3 January. There are 141 members of the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union (CFMEU) participated in a strike authorisation vote at the site in early September, and have been engaged in industrial actions since then.

Port Kembla also faced a day-long work stoppage earlier this week.

Northern Territory

Union members in Darwin are planning to not work for 1½ day beginning on 23 December. Like the Port of Brisbane, Darwin tends to handle livestock and oil products.

But only 37 workers were eligible to participate in a successful mid-September union ballot authorising work stoppages at the port.

By Avinash Govind

New Zealand's conservative coalition government wants to ensure reliable generation, whether that is from coal, oil, gas, or geothermal resources, the country's resources minister Shane Jones told Argus this week.

Jones was also clear about the need to draw a distinction between "the expectations on [a] small, open trading nation like [New Zealand] not to use coal and the major hope[s] and needs of the average New Zealander for affordable power, reliable power."

"If [reliable power] comes from coal, that's the mix and the menu for the future," he added. Jones argued that existing renewable power sources cannot exclusively provide for New Zealand's energy needs. He instead suggested that his government is interested in promoting alternative power sources such as oil, gas and geothermal, through investments and policy changes.

New Zealand's coal-fired power generation surged between July-September, according to the New Zealand's Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE). Coal rose to 8pc of total generation from 3pc a year earlier, following a drop in hydroelectric power production. The country burned 363,513t of coal over those months, more than tripling its use for power generation purposes compared to the same period last year.

Oil, gas

Jones has taken steps to boost the country's oil sector since taking office in late 2023, following the coalition's victory over the centre-left Labour party. The minister introduced the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill in June, a piece of legislation that he described as being "aimed at increasing investor confidence in petroleum exploration and development."

Jones told Argus that under the previous government, "people who may have been willing to [make] investment[s] and bring patient capital concluded that New Zealand was no longer available as a destination for oil and gas and this has resulted in a diminution in [oil] investment."

The Crown Minerals Amendment Bill will overturn a 2018 ban on offshore oil exploration, which was introduced while Jones was serving in the previous Labour-led coalition government.

New Zealand's oil sector increased its annual well spending from NZ$110mn ($63.2mn) in 2018 to NZ$403mn, in the years following the ban in 2018. The total number of active oil permits in the country has plunged from 56 to 37 over the same period, MBIE data show.

New Zealand likely houses at least 223.5bn m³ of undiscovered, offshore gas reserves; 249mn bl of undiscovered, offshore oil reserves; and 177mn bl of undiscovered, offshore NGL reserves, mostly scattered around the North Island, according to US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates in 2022.

The country's discovered, recoverable reserves are at between 38.3mn-52.7mn bl of oil; 29.4bn-39.8bn m³ of gas; and between 1.2mn–1.4mn t of LPG as of 1 January 2024, according to the MBIE.

Besides restarting oil exploration, the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill also seeks to change permitting processes to drive capital into the sector.

Permits are currently allocated through a competitive tender process, Jones told Argus this week. The government wants "the flexibility to use alternative processes to match investor interest in the most efficient and effective way by allowing the option of using non-tender methods."

MBIE has indicated that the government may start using ‘priority in time' tenders, which allocates permits to the first eligible projects that apply for them, once the bill passes. But the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill does not specify how the government will manage non-competitive tenders.

The government is also not using the Crown Minerals Amendment Bill to "specifically intervene in coal mining operations" in New Zealand, Jones said. But coal demand will fall "in the event that [the government is] able to expand the supply of indigenous gas," he noted.

Geothermal

The government's energy strategy also appears to involve doubling down on domestic geothermal generation, which is New Zealand's second most common source of power.

Geothermal generators produced 2,363GWh of power between July-September, accounting for 20.5pc of total generation, in line with historical averages, according to MBIE data. New Zealand's government seems to be trying to push that share up.

The government in early December decided to allocate up to NZ$60mn of public infrastructure funding to research for deep, geothermal energy production. The work will focus on drilling geothermal wells up to 6km deep, nearly twice the depth of standard wells.

Jones told Argus that New Zealand officials are currently in Japan, discussing supercritical geothermal generation opportunities with engineers and scientists.

By Avinash Govind

US president-elect Donald Trump is offering his support for a rewritten spending bill that would avoid a government shutdown but leave out a provision authorizing year-round 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) sales.

The bill — which Republicans rewrote today after Trump attacked an earlier bipartisan agreement — would avoid a government shutdown starting Saturday, deliver agricultural aid and provide disaster relief. Trump said the bill was a "very good deal" that would also include a two-year suspension of the "very unnecessary" ceiling on federal debt, until 30 January 2027.

"All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country, and vote 'YES' for this Bill, TONIGHT!" Trump wrote in a social media post.

Passing the bill would require support from Democrats, who are still reeling after Trump and his allies — including Tesla chief executive Elon Musk — upended a spending deal they had spent weeks negotiating with US House speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana). Democrats have not yet said if they would vote against the new agreement.

"We are prepared to move forward with the bipartisan agreement that we thought was negotiated in good faith with House Republicans," House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) said earlier today.

That earlier deal would have kept the government funded through 14 March, in addition to providing a one-year extension to the farm bill, $100bn in disaster relief and $10bn in aid for farmers. The bill would also provide a waiver that would avoid a looming ban on summertime sales of E15 across much of the US. Ethanol industry officials said they would urge lawmakers to vote against any package without the E15 provision.

"Pulling E15 out of the bill makes absolutely no sense and is an insult to America's farmers and renewable fuel producers," Renewable Fuels Association chief executive Geoff Cooper said.

If no agreement is reached by Friday at 11:59pm ET, federal agencies would have to furlough millions of workers and curtail services, although some agencies are able to continue operations in the event of a short-term funding lapse. Air travel is unlikely to face immediate interruptions because key federal workers are considered "essential," but some work on permits, agricultural and import data, and regulations could be curtailed.

The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has funding to get through a "short-term" shutdown but could be affected by a longer shutdown, chairman Willie Phillips said. The US Department of Energy expects "no disruptions" if funding lapses for 1-5 days, according to its shutdown plan. The US Environmental Protection Agency would furlough about 90pc of its nearly 17,000 staff in the event of a shutdown, according to a plan it updated earlier this year.

By Chris Knight

The world’s coal use is expected to reach a fresh high of 8.7bn tonnes this year, and remain at near-record levels for years as a result of a global gas crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

There has been record production and trade of coal and power generation from coal since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine inflated global gas market prices, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA said the coal rebound, after a slump during the global Covid pandemic, means consumption of the fossil fuel is now on track to rise to a new peak of 8.77bn tonnes by the end of the year – and could remain at near-record levels until 2027.

The Paris-based agency blamed power plants for the growing use of coal over the last year, particularly in China which consumes 30% more of the polluting fuel than the rest of the world put together.

In developed economies such as the US and the European Union coal power generation has already passed its peak, the IEA said, and is forecast to fall by 5% and 12% respectively this year.

In the UK, coal power has been consigned to history after the last coal plant at Ratcliffe-on-Soar in Nottinghamshire generated its final megawatt in September, narrowly beating the government’s 2024 deadline.

Coal demand in China is expected to grow by 1% in 2024 to reach 4.9bn tonnes, which is another record, according to the IEA. India is expected to see demand grow by more than 5% to 1.3bn tonnes, a level previously reached only by China.

The IEA said that the forecast boom in renewable energy over the coming years is expected to keep a cap on coal use for the next three years, even as demand for electricity is expected to surge in developing countries, before demand for the fossil fuel begins to fall by the end of the decade, the report said.

Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security, said: “The rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is reshaping the global electricity sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the world’s coal use. As a result, our models show global demand for coal plateauing through 2027 even as electricity consumption rises sharply.”

“However, weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” he added.

Bloomberg Technoz, Jakarta - Harga batu bara jatuh pada perdagangan kemarin. Tren negatif masih mewarnai gerak harga si batu hitam.

Pada Rabu (18/12/2024), harga batu bara di pasar ICE Newcastle untuk kontrak pengiriman bulan ini dihargai US$ 128,6/ton. Anjlok 1,34% dibandingkan hari sebelumnya dan menjadi yang terendah sejak 10 April atau lebih dari 8 bulan terakhir.

Dalam seminggu terakhir, harga batu bara ambruk 3,49% secara point-to-point. Selama sebulan ke belakang, harga amblas 9,28%.

Tahun ini juga sepertinya bukan tahunnya batu bara. Sepanjang 2024 (year-to-date/ytd). harga terpangkas 12,16%.

Sejatinya ada sentimen positif bagi batu bara. Laporan terbaru dari International Energy Agency (IEA) menunjukkan bahwa permintaan batu bara akan terus naik setidaknya sampai 2027.

Prediksi terbaru ini mematahkan proyeksi sebelumnya yang memperkirakan permintaan batu bara sudah memuncak tahun lalu. 

Organisasi yang berkantor pusat di Paris (Prancis) itu kini memperkirakan permintaan batu bara pada 2027 bisa mencapai 8,9 juta ton, sekitar 1% lebih tinggi dari tahun ini. 

“Permodelan kami menunjukkan bahwa permintaan batu bara baru menurun setelah 2027, meski konsumsi listrik meningkat. Namun, faktor cuaca (terutama di China, konsumen batu bara terbesar dunia) akan berpengaruh besar terhadap permintaan batu bara dalam jangka pendek. Kecepatan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik juga akan sangat penting dalam jangka menengah,” papar Keisuke Sadamori, Direktur Pasar dan Ketahanan Energi IEA, dalam pernyataannya.

Analisis Teknikal

Secara teknikal dengan perspektif harian (daily time frame), batu bara masih sulit keluar dari zona bearish. Tercermin dari Relative Strength Index (RSI) yang sebesar 14,59. 

RSI di bawah 50 mengindikasikan suatu aset sedang berada di posisi bearish. Bahkan kalai angkanya di bawah 30, artinya tergolong jenuh jual (oversold).

Hawa oversold makin terasa dengan indikator Stochastic RSI yang sudah menyentuh angka 0. Paling rendah, sangat jenuh jual.

Dengan begitu, sebenarnya harga batu bara berpeluang mencetak technical rebound. Target resisten terdekat ada di rentang US$ 130-135/ton.

Target paling optimistis adalah US$ 141/ton.

Sedangkan target support ada di US$ 127/ton. Jika tertembus, maka US$ 125/ton bisa menjadi target berikutnya.

(aji)