Over the past week, European thermal coal indices plunged below 101 USD/t, despite stable gas prices and low inventories. The volatility of the index resulted from weather fluctuations in Europe, which may cause prices to return to the level of 109-110 USD/t with the next heat wave. Furthermore, coal generation margins in Germany improved as coal spreads rose from -€10.81/MWh last week to -€8.50/MWh, driven by an increase in electricity quotes from 92.52 EUR/MWh to 95.31 EUR/MWh.

Gas quotations on the TTF hub firmed to 418.26 USD/1,000 m3 (+0.68 USD/1,000 m3 w-o-w). Injection into European underground gas storage (UGS) facilities continued, reaching 64% of total capacity (+3 p.p. over the week). As of July 16, 2025, coal stocks at ARA terminals stayed flat at 2.94 mio t, due to low water levels in the Rhine River, limiting barges to half their normal coal load.

South African High-CV 6,000 dropped below 92 USD/t. The pressure was caused by lower prices in Europe and growth in stocks at the RBCT terminal to 3.90 mio t (+0.54 mio t w-o-w). South African operator Transnet does not anticipate that scheduled railway maintenance (until July 26) will lead to a sharp rise in coal deliveries by trucks, unlike in previous years, given the unfavorable conditions on the international market.

Exports via RBCT are expected to total 3.70 mio t in July (-0.59 mio t vs. June). Nevertheless, in August, the figure is forecasted to grow to 4.50 mio t (+0.80 mio t vs. July).

In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR coal at the port of Qinhuangdao climbed to 88-89 USD/t amid growing consumption and declining port inventories.

Shenhua raised its purchase prices for third-party suppliers on July 12 by 0.7-1.12 USD/t, the fourth increase since the beginning of the month, bringing the total hike to 1.96-4.34 USD/t.

Representatives of major coal regions and state-owned mining companies called for tighter import controls, citing the risk of oversupply and the likelihood of domestic prices falling to new lows in the H2 2025, despite imports already declining by about 10% in H1 2025. Market participants stressed the need to reduce imports of Low-CV coal, which is putting pressure on domestic prices.

Inventories at the 9 largest ports decreased to 27.08 mio t (-0.29 mio t w-o-w), while coal stocks at the 6 largest coastal TPPs totaled 14.46 mio t (+0.19 mio t w-o-w). The consumption climbed to 901 kt/day from 898 kt/day a week earlier.

Indonesian 5,900 GAR went up to 71.5 USD/t, while the price of 4,200 GAR moved above 40.5 USD/t. The demand is growing because of the heat wave in the Asia-Pacific and higher coal consumption, including in China.

Australian High-CV 6,000 rose slightly above the level of 110 USD/t. Some export terminals in Queensland are undergoing maintenance, which is partially limiting the growth of shipments from Australia.

The Australian Prime Minister and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing on July 15, marking the restoration of relations and trade between the two countries, including coal supplies, which had been partially disrupted several years ago.

Australia’s HCC metallurgical coal index plummeted below 173 USD/t and remains under pressure amid increased supply from Australia. Some end users in China and Southeast Asia keep looking to resell Australian material because there are cheaper options from other exporting countries. Buyers in India are also taking a wait-and-see approach, while they are expected to focus on shipments in H2 September 2025.

Source: CCA Analysis