A powerful El Nino event poses a greater threat to India's electricity system than to any other national grid and may delay the country's move away from coal, according to a new report published on July 6 by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

The report projects an estimated 18 TWh power gap over the year beginning in July, driven by surging cooling demand and reduced output from hydro and wind sources. The nonprofit analyzed 110 countries and identified India's shortfall as the largest.

CREA expects the deficit to be covered primarily by ramping up coal-fired generation. Coal still supplies over 70% of India's electricity, even after thermal power output declined last year. The government aims to cut that share to 64% by 2027 and to roughly half within ten years, but extreme weather patterns such as a super El Nino, which pushes global temperatures higher, could impede the shift toward cleaner power.

Nandikesh Sivalingam, director at CREA, noted that while India has succeeded in expanding solar capacity, the country must speed up deployment of battery storage and grid upgrades to begin reducing fossil fuel dependence. He argued that fresh demand should be absorbed by clean technologies while existing coal plants continue to operate.

Solar power has already proved essential in managing extreme heat. Between January and May, it supplied close to a quarter of daytime peak consumption, helping to keep thermal generation below 2024 levels despite record-breaking temperatures.

CREA added that integrating battery storage systems would enable India to curb coal use further, particularly during evening hours.