Indonesia's coal exports dropped in 2025, snapping a five-year straight growth yet remaining the second highest on record. The volume picked up to an intra-year peak in December, yet still failing to reverse the downward trend for the whole year.

The country exported 529 million tonnes of coal in 2025, down 6.44% year on year (YoY) from 566 million tonnes in 2024, according to the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Indonesia.

The export value declined 20.49% YoY to $30.53 billion in 2025, mainly due to dropping coal prices, showed the BPS data. The average export price decreased 15.01% YoY to $58.43/t in the year.

During the year, coal demand in China and India, top buyers of Indonesian coal, weakened significantly due to increased domestic coal production and high stockpiles at ports and power plants. Indonesian coal shipments to the two countries declined 11.98% and 7.19% YoY, respectively.

The Indonesian government has been lowering coal production targets over the recent years in response to global oversupply and lower coal prices. This, coupled with an export pricing policy linked to the HBA reference prices and tighter foreign exchange controls implemented last year, prompted local miners to raise export prices to pass on their cost pressure to buyers, eroding price edge of Indonesian coal.

As a result, other suppliers like Russia, Australia, and Mongolia gradually expanded their market share in Asia, backed also by their geographical advantages.

In December, Indonesian coal exports totaled 51.20 million tonnes, down 1.09% YoY yet up 3.73 MoM to the highest level over the year. The export value fell 12.41% YoY but gained 9.69% MoM to $2.99 billion, putting the average export price at $58.43/t, down 11.44% YoY yet up 5.75% MoM.

In the month, persistent heavy rainfall in key mining hubs disrupted mine operations and port shipments, straining coal supply to the seaborne market. The supply was constrained further as some miners reduced production after completing annual output targets, while others held back on sales due to pending approval for RKAB mining quotas and coal export tariffs.

However, many miners boosted shipments in December to meet sales targets, driving up short-term outflows. The volume found further support from accelerated purchases after coal prices dropped to a level acceptable to some buyers.

Furthermore, some miners rushed shipments ahead of the implementation of 2026 coal export tariffs, sustaining further growth in exports during the month.

By coal type, Indonesia exported 329 million tonnes of other coal in 2025, down 2.73% YoY and accounting for 62.07% of total exports. Exports of lignite coal were 133 million tonnes, down 12.45% YoY, making up 25.14% of the total.

Exports of other bituminous coal amounted to 45.64 million tonnes, down 11.37% YoY, contributing 8.06% to the total coal exports. Coking coal exports stood at 24.12 million tonnes, down 9.37% YoY, representing 4.76% of total exports.

Exports of thermal coal (other coal, other bituminous coal, and lignite coal) totaled 504 million tonnes, falling 6.25% YoY, a share of 95.3% against the total. The export value fell 19.95% YoY to $27.99 billion.

Indonesia's top five export destinations in the year were China, India, the Philippines, South Korea and Malaysia, which together accounted for 78.04% of the total exports for the month. Four of the top ten buyers in the month were southeastern countries.

China remained the largest buyer last year, receiving 213 million tonnes, down 11.98% YoY, representing 40.2% of total exports against 2024's 42.7%. The export value to China was $10.22 billion, sliding 25.56% YoY.

Exports to India amounted to 105 million tonnes last year, down 7.19% YoY, making up 14.3% of total exports. The export value to India was $5.22 billion, down 20.16% YoY.

Exports to the Philippines decreased 5.89% YoY and to 38.83 million tonnes, accounting for 7.34% of total exports. Shipments to South Korea gained 4.51% YoY to 29.10 million tonnes, comprising 5.5% of the country's total exports. Exports to Malaysia were 27.62 million tonnes, rising 1.54% YoY.

In 2025, exports to Southeast Asian nations totaled 114 million tonnes, descending 2.71% YoY, representing 21.6% of Indonesia's overall exports. Indonesia's coal exports to Europe were 1.64 million tonnes, up 12.12% YoY.

Looking ahead to 2026, the country's coal exports are anticipated to fall 18-24% YoY to 390-420 million tonnes, owing to the government's lower annual coal output target of around 600 million tonnes in 2026, the pending approval of the Annual Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) and potential increase of Domestic Market Obligation (DMO).

In the short term, Indonesia's coal exports would be negatively impacted by tight spot availability due to adverse weather and policy uncertainty, inactive demand from major importers like China and India, and slowed inquiries from Chinese buyers ahead of the Chinese New Year.