The National Bureau of Statistics recently released data on China's provincial raw coal production in 2025. A thorough examination of the data revealed several noteworthy changes, some of which were expected, while others came as surprises.

1. Shanxi returns to the top

In 2024, Inner Mongolia claimed the top position in coal production, displacing Shanxi, due to contracted coal production in Shanxi and increased Inner Mongolia's output. However, in 2025, Shanxi's coal output rebounded, achieving year-on-year growth, while Inner Mongolia experienced a decline. This shift propelled Shanxi back to the top.

The competition between these two provinces has been ongoing for years. A review of historical production data showed that Inner Mongolia first overtook Shanxi in 2009, holding the top position until 2013. Shanxi regained the top spot in 2014-15, but from 2016 to 2019, Inner Mongolia reclaimed it. In the latest cycle from 2020 to 2023, Shanxi maintained its lead for four consecutive years.

2. Shaanxi's output breaks 800 Mt

In 2025, Shaanxi province further increased its coal production, reaching 804.62 million tonnes, a 2.9% year-on-year increase. This growth placed Shaanxi at the forefront of the four major producing regions (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang). Shaanxi's contribution to national coal production grew to 16.7%.

3. Xinjiang's production growth slows

Xinjiang, which saw a rapid growth rate of 17.5% in 2024, experienced a significant slowdown in 2025. While the region's coal production continued to grow, it only increased by 1.9%, with total production reaching 55.29 million tonnes.

The slowdown is attributed to decreased production in the second half of 2025, which led to a year-on-year decline starting from July. This was a significant deceleration compared to the rapid growth seen in previous years.

4. Continued increase in production concentration

In 2025, eight provinces and regions produced over 10 million tonnes of raw coal. These included Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Henan, Ningxia, and Anhui.

Together, these eight provinces accounted for 4.41 billion tonnes, or 91.31% of the national total, up 0.01 percentage point (pp) from a year before. The combined production of the four major coal-producing provinces—Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang—amounted to 3.95 billion tonnes, accounting for 81.7% of the total, up 0.1 pp.

Although the increase in production concentration is modest, it still signifies the strengthening of capacity centralization, which is expected to continue.

5. Provinces maintain output over 100 Mt, yet their ranks change

In 2025, the number of provinces producing over 100 million tonnes of raw coal remained stable at eight. Shanxi and Inner Mongolia produced over 1 billion tonnes each, maintaining their positions as the top-tier provinces. Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Guizhou, Henan, Ningxia, and Anhui produced between 100 million tonnes and 1 billion tonnes, forming the second tier.

Notably, Anhui saw a decrease in production and dropped from sixth place to eighth place compared to 2024.

6. Gansu exits the Top 10, Heilongjiang sees the most significant growth

In the provinces producing between 50 million and 100 million tonnes of coal, Shandong, Yunnan, Heilongjiang, and Gansu saw the highest production levels.

However, Gansu's coal production declined slightly to 65.99 million tonnes, causing it to fall out of the top ten, ranking eleventh. Meanwhile, Yunnan entered the top ten again with a production of 70.94 million tonnes.

A key point of interest was Heilongjiang, which had been overtaken by Yunnan in 2023 and was surpassed together with Yunnan again by Gansu in 2024. In 2025, Heilongjiang's coal production experienced a significant rebound, with the highest year-on-year growth in the country, at 16.6%. The total output reached 63.29 million tonnes, but it still did not re-enter the top ten, remaining in twelfth place.