The thermal coal market at northern China ports saw subdued trading activity on the first post-holiday trading day, with participants divided on near-term price movements.

Some argued that inventory accumulation during the holiday, combined with seasonal demand woes, would inevitably push prices lower.

Coal stocks at Qinhuangdao, Jingtang, and Caofeidian ports totaled 22.59 million tonnes as of early October 9, up 1.16% on the day and 8.09% on the week, according to Sxcoal. This was mainly attributed to scarce transactions during the holiday and wind-induced port closures.

Meanwhile, power plants under six major coastal power groups saw daily coal consumption drop 2.15% from September 30 to 817,300 tonnes on October 9, while inventories climbed 2.94% to 14.31 million tonnes. With sufficient fulfillment of long-term contracts and weakening industrial consumption during the holiday, utilities were in no rush to secure spot supplies.

Cold air is expected to continue impacting northern and eastern China, bringing winds of Grade 4-5 with gusts reaching Grade 7-8. Temperatures in these areas may drop 4-8 degrees Celsius, with a few regions exceeding 10 degrees Celsius, according to the National Meteorological Center.

This, together with scheduled pre-winter maintenance on certain power units, would further squeeze coal burns at power plants. Such changes would give buyers considerable leverage in price bargains.

While chemical plants maintained steady procurement to support operations during the busy season, construction-related industries continued to struggle, capping raw material intakes.

"We have 40,000 tonnes of 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal, but received very few bids. Bids from major players came in at 3-5 yuan/t lower than the CCI 5000 index," a Shanxi-based trader said. He expressed concerns about demand woes as southern temperatures fall.

On October 9, the CCI index for domestic 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal traded at Qinhuangdao port was assessed by Sxcoal at 706 yuan/t FOB with VAT, unchanged compared to the pre-holiday level. The index for 5,000 Kcal/kg and 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR grade both kept flat at 614 yuan/t and 537 yuan/t, respectively.

Scarce deals were reportedly settled at fixed prices due to thin inquiries. A Shanxi-origin 0.6%-sulfur 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal was offered at 630-635 yuan/t, while limited interest was seen for higher-CV 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR grades.

End users were keen on pushing down buy prices. "We received a downstream counteroffer of 610 yuan/t for 1%-sulfur 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal. We are holding back for now," a Fujian-based trader told Sxcoal.

However, others pointed to the 20-day maintenance on Daqin railway starting October 7 and production disruptions from frequent rainfall in key mining regions as factors that would limit inventory builds at northern ports, a potential support for prices.

Winter stockpiling has already been underway in northeastern and northern China, where utilities are placing orders ahead of the heating season.

Furthermore, some miners opted to keep offers firm and even tested minor price gains post-holiday, increasing traders' shipping costs.

Delivering 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal from key producing regions to northern ports could cause losses of about 20 yuan/t. Many traders were reluctant to take position, slightly restraining available cargoes at ports and preventing any steep price declines.

"We are offering 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal at 2 yuan/t above the CCI index and refuse to undersell given the limited arbitrage room," noted one source with an energy group in Shanxi.