China's seaborne thermal coal import market showed early signs of stabilizing, with utility tender bids dipping as domestic price gains slowed. However, sentiment stayed firm due to high import costs and anticipated winter demand.

Traders reported a slight pullback in offers for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal in recent tenders, with bids hovering slightly lower at around 450 yuan/t CFR with VAT South China or $47/t FOB for Panamax vessels.

That marked a modest decline from the previously awarded levels. Sxcoal's tracking data showed on October 22, one southern utility bought three cargoes of Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal at 453-455 yuan/t, netting back to $47.3-47.7/t FOB.

It also pointed to a growing prudence among importers as domestic market price gains slowed and utility coal burns weakened. Some offers of domestic coal at northern ports of China slightly retreated as traders sought to take profit. Meanwhile, coal burns at coastal power plants fell obviously by 13% week on week and 10% on the month to 1.86 million tonnes on October 22, alongside the decline in temperatures in southern China.

Despite the dip in bids, trader sources reported that offers from Indonesian coal sellers are held relatively firm. Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal was offered largely steady at $48-49/t FOB. Transactions were seen to be concluded at $47.5-48/t, with only high-quality cargoes testing above the higher end.

High delivered costs, driven by firm offers and elevated freight rates, along with expectations of steady power plant demand as temperatures drop, suggest limited downward pressure.

"While some traders are lowering bids (to utility tenders) slightly to attract deals, no one is bidding too low, as overall sentiment for the winter demand remains positive," said a Guangdong-based trader source. "There's a bit of price resistance emerging from utilities, prompting a few traders to offload some cargoes to take profit. But the market isn't collapsing and is just catching its breath," he added.

Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal still held an obvious price advantage of 70 yuan/t over domestic equivalent on October 23, expanding 20.36 yuan/t week on week owing to earlier fast rallies of the latter.

China Huaneng Group, one of the major state-owned power generators, continued to release tender on October 23, seeking to procure 17 cargoes totaling 1.03 million tonnes of seaborne thermal coal with delivery within November-December.

In the high-CV segment, Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was offered at $760-770/t CFR China with VAT, with a recent trade heard between traders at 755 yuan/t.

One Beijing-based trader source said prices for the high-CV grade remained firm. "It's hard to secure cargo below 760 yuan/t now and the market remains tightly held," he noted.

Some participants said that while domestic prices at northern ports are showing signs of plateauing, imported high-CV coal would remain supported by cost advantage and ongoing tender activities from domestic utilities, expecting the market to stay firm or experience mild consolidation rather than significant declines.

Sxcoal estimated on October 23 that Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was around 60 yuan/t cheaper than domestic comparable supplies, also widening compared with the previous week.

On October 24, the CCI index for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal stood at $46.8/t FOB, edging up $0.3/t day on day. The index for Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal was up $0.2/t to $94.2/t.