China's raw coal production in November reached 426.79 million tonnes, a 0.5% year-on-year decrease but a 4.93% increase from October, showed data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The November output was the second highest of the year, trailing only March's 440.58 million tonnes, differing from earlier market expectations of limited supply growth.

In terms of daily production, November set a new high for the year, with an average of 14.23 million tonnes per day, surpassing March's 14.21 million tonnes. The slightly lower output in November was due to fewer days in the month, while coal mine capacity utilization reached its highest level of the year in the first 11 months.

With temperatures continuing to drop, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) organized a video conference in early November for the 2025–2026 heating season, focusing on energy security during the winter.

The meeting emphasized improving coal production, ensuring long-term contract fulfillment, and ensuring coal stockpiles at power plants enough for at least 15 days of consumption.

Following this, the National Energy Administration (NEA) held its second meeting of 2025 on safety production, urging energy companies to increase production and ensure resource allocation and emergency repairs to support energy security through winter. In addition, at a coal clean utilization work meeting in Yulin, Shaanxi, the NDRC stressed the importance of energy supply for national stability and public welfare.

In the context of these policies and with coal prices hitting yearly highs in November, coal production increased as safety and environmental inspections normalized. This, combined with reduced weather impacts, led to a noticeable boost in production.

From January to November, China's total raw coal production reached 4.4 billion tonnes, a 1.4% year-on-year increase, with the growth rate slightly narrowing compared to the first ten months of the year.

Looking into December, the impact of cold air is expected to weaken, and temperatures will remain warmer across the country, limiting potential increases in daily coal consumption.

After recent intensive coal shipments, power plants' inventories remained relatively high, with coastal provinces holding an average of 17 days of stock, and coal stocks at nationally-coordinated power plants enough for 35 days of consumption. This suggested that demand from power plants may remain limited, potentially constraining further supply increases.

Meanwhile, sluggish demand also dented demand at mine-mouth market, with stockpiles at mines generally increasing. In some cases, this even impacted normal operations.

As the year-end approaches, some coal mines completed annual production targets and, under overproduction checks, are likely to suspend operations for maintenance.

Overall, it is expected that China's raw coal production will face difficulty maintaining month-on-month growth in December. Year-on-year, the output is likely to decline, given December's historically high output in 2024, with the annual production forecast to be around 4.8 billion tonnes, roughly in line with 2024 levels.