China's coal imports in January-February 2026 reach a new high for the same period in history, defying earlier forecasts of shrinking import volumes amidst ample domestic supply and structural changes in demand.

During the first two months, the country imported 77.22 million tonnes of coal, up 1.5% year on year, showed the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC).

February imports fell to 30.94 million tonnes, down 9.95% from a year earlier. This means that the increase in the two-month total was largely driven by the January imports, which grew 10.82% on the year to 46.28 million tonnes.

In January, imported thermal coal maintained a clear price advantage despite firm low-CV cargo prices. Stronger prices and slightly tightened supply in the domestic market also pushed downstream users to imported resources, bolstered by pre-holiday restocking needs.

Meanwhile, the Chinese New Year holiday fell in February this year versus January last year, resulting in a lower import base in 2025. The holiday effect, narrower price edge in imported coal and eased overseas supply combined contributed to the drop in import volumes.

Coking coal, an essential input for steelmaking, tends to be less price-sensitive than thermal coal. Chinese steel mills, prioritizing supply stability, maintained steady purchases of higher-quality coking coal from countries such as Mongolia and Russia.

The import growth could be driven mainly by overland shipments, while seaborne volumes may have declined year on year. From January to February, Mongolia exported 16.47 million tonnes of coal, surging 42.90% compared with the same period last year, all of which went to China, the latest Mongolian customs data showed. The nation's exports for January soared 73.49% year on year to 10.12 million tonnes.

Looking ahead, China's coal imports are expected to be subdued in March, traditionally a slack season for power coal demand. Uncertainty over Indonesian supply and the fading of any clear price edge for imported supplies would weigh on thermal coal imports. Yet March is also a peak period for the non-power sectors, which may offer some support to coking coal.

Over the full year, coal imports would still be subject to change. As geopolitical conflicts intensify and energy markets face renewed shocks, China is likely to place greater emphasis on energy self-sufficiency. Given the non-renewable nature of fossil fuels, securing domestic supply remains politically critical.