LAUNCESTON, Australia, Sept 18 (Reuters) - A rebound in China's imports of seaborne thermal coal has helped prices recover, but the boost is likely to prove temporary as recent strength in coal-fired electricity generation eases.

China, the world's biggest coal producer and importer, is expected to import 27.41 million metric tons of seaborne thermal coal in September, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

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This would extend the strength seen in August, when arrivals were 28.68 million tons, the most since December.

On a daily basis, September's imports are tracking at 914,000 tons, just shy of the 925,000 in August, although the final September figure may be revised higher as Kpler assesses more cargoes as likely to be unloaded before the end of the month.

China's utilities turned to imports as domestic coal output faltered amid increasing mine safety inspections, with production slipping 3% in August from the same month in 2024.

China produced 390.5 million tons in August, down from a year earlier but up slightly from the year-low of 380.99 million recorded for July.

At the same time that coal output was easing, China's fossil fuel electricity generation was rising, as the hottest summer on record boosted demand for air-conditioning.

Thermal power generation, which is mostly from coal with a small amount from natural gas, was 627.4 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in August, up 2% from a year earlier, according to official data released on September 15.

Coal-fired power was also boosted by falling output from hydropower, which fell by 10% in August from a year earlier as parts of the country endured drought conditions.

The increased demand for coal from utilities helped prices for the most popular seaborne thermal coal grades recover in recent weeks.

Indonesian coal with an energy content of 4,200 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg) , as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, rose to $42.62 a ton in the week to September 12, up 5.3% from the four-year low of $40.45 hit in the week to July 4.

Australian coal with an energy content of 5,500 kcal/kg ended at $69.60 a ton in the seven days to September 12, a gain of 5.9% from its four-year low of $65.72 in the week to June 6.

The question for the seaborne coal market is whether China's recent increased appetite for imports is likely to persist.

Much will depend on whether officials continue to restrict domestic output through safety inspections that target mines that are believed to have produced beyond their approved plans.

But even if domestic production is held back, it's also likely that China's rapid deployment of renewables such as wind and solar will continue to eat into coal's share of generation.

This will especially be the case in the current shoulder season for power demand between the summer and winter peaks.

China added 212 gigawatts (GW) of new solar capacity in the first half of 2025, more than double the pace achieved in 2024, and while the pace is expected to slow in the second half of this year, the total for 2025 is likely to be above 300 GW, eclipsing the record 277 GW from 2024.

China is projected to add about a record 140 GW of new wind power capacity in 2025, according to the State Grid Energy Research Institute, up 77% from 2024.

China isn't the only factor that drives seaborne coal prices, and it's worth noting that India, the world's second-biggest coal importer, is expected to see arrivals of 15.08 million tons of thermal coal in September, up from 11.04 million in August and the most since May, according to Kpler.

But similar to China, India's thermal coal imports are likely to ease back once the peak demand period during the monsoon season eases.

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