Indonesia's total solar capacity is projected to reach 23.2 GW by 2035 as the country advances its clean energy transition, showed the data released by UK consultancy GlobalData.

Indonesia's installed solar capacity is projected to hit 1.5 GW by the end of 2025 and reach 4.7 GW by 2048, becoming the country's largest renewable energy source, the data showed. The capacity is expected to hit 9.1 GW by the decade's end, surpass 20 GW in 2034 and finally stand at 23.2 GW in 2035.

The country's surge in solar installation will be driven by the expansion of floating and utility-scale projects, as well as rooftop solar programs supported by feed-in mechanisms and updated net-metering regulations, according to GlobalData.

Total renewable power capacity is projected to reach 38.1 GW by 2035, up from 8.4 GW in 2024. The growth is expected to be catalyzed by the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), which targets 44% renewable electricity by 2030, and other fiscal and investment incentives, noted Mohammed Ziauddin, power analyst at GlobalData.

Despite the robust growth forecast, the country may remain heavily reliant on thermal power by 2035. Coal-fired capacity is expected to rise to 61.4 GW in 2035 from 55.6 GW in 2024, backed by existing contracts and infrastructure, while gas-fired capacity may grow from 29.1 GW to 36 GW to provide flexibility and backup for renewables.

Given the country's reliance on isolated island grids, Ziauddin highlighted the need to focus on expanding cross-island transmission and deploying digital grid systems, in a bid to support the scaling of renewables.

According to Indonesia's National Energy Policy, the country aims to achieve 108.7 GW of solar capacity by 2060. To meet the target, it launched an initiative to deploy 100 GW of solar earlier this year, consisting of plans for 80 GW of 1 MW solar minigrids with storage, alongside 20 GW of centralized solar power plants.